Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:13:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

11
0x110f…1614
sports · 57 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$14 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$17 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Net worth$59
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses30 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)49 / 57
History coverage179d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 8 History 49 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$16
14 days+$20
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Hurricanes 59¢ 100¢ $3 $6 +$2 (+69%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 30¢ 81¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+174%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets New York Mets 54¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 83¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Knicks 39¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B FURIA 71¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Lightning Lightning 56¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Thunder 76¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 216.5 Over 54¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Karl Poling Blaise Bicknell 73¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Wild vs. Avalanche Wild 85¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 59¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Nuggets (-10.5) Nuggets 56¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Mavericks vs. Pelicans Mavericks 52¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Pistons 62¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $3 $0 +15%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $8 +$6 +81%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 10 $3 +$2 +68%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 10 $4 +$7 +186%
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Karl Poling Jun 04 $3 −$3 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets Jun 04 $9 +$2 +25%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $3 +$5 +163%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 14 $3 $0 +11%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 14 $9 −$5 -54%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons May 13 $6 +$1 +16%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 13 $6 +$4 +73%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 30 $7 −$7 -99%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 30 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Apr 30 $4 $0 -3%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 28 $7 −$7 -100%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Spread: Nuggets (-10.5) Mar 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 216.5 Mar 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Nuggets vs. Celtics Feb 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Jazz vs. Rockets Feb 28 $5 +$1 +16%
Bulls vs. Rockets Jan 26 $3 +$1 +20%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jan 26 $6 +$2 +35%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-27? Jan 07 $6 +$3 +43%
Jazz vs. Nuggets Jan 07 $2 $0 +3%
Spurs vs. Thunder Dec 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Pelicans vs. Cavaliers Dec 25 $6 $0 +0%
Hornets vs. Cavaliers Dec 24 $2 $0 +1%
Grizzlies vs. Thunder Dec 24 $2 $0 +12%
49ers vs. Colts Dec 24 $2 +$1 +22%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 24 $1 $0 +0%
Rockets vs. Nuggets Dec 24 $3 +$3 +96%
Eagles vs. Commanders Dec 24 $4 +$1 +32%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 24 $1 $0 +0%
Bears vs. 49ers Dec 24 $4 $0 +9%
Canucks vs. Flyers Dec 24 $6 +$1 +24%
Packers vs. Bears Dec 23 $2 +$2 +92%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 23 $9 −$6 -66%
Mavericks vs. Pelicans Dec 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Miami vs. Texas A&M Dec 22 $6 +$4 +70%
Hornets vs. Pistons Dec 22 $3 +$1 +24%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 20 $3 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on December 15? Dec 20 $4 $0 +2%
Pistons vs. Celtics Dec 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Rainbow FDV above $500M one day after launch? Dec 15 $3 −$1 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 80% −$13
other 12% +$2
crypto 5% $0
politics 2% $0
world 1% −$3
tech 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 54¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $7 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 8h
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline BUY Knicks 39¢ $2 8h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $19 36h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 2d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 59¢ $3 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 86¢ $3 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $8 3d
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Karl Poling BUY Blaise Bicknell 73¢ $3 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 34¢ $4 8d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $3 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 17d
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 79¢ $9 29d
Wild vs. Avalanche BUY Wild 85¢ $3 29d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 30d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 62¢ $5 30d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $4 30d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 62¢ $6 30d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 89¢ $3 30d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B BUY FURIA 71¢ $7 44d
Canadiens vs. Lightning BUY Lightning 56¢ $5 44d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 57¢ $6 44d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 86¢ $6 44d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $4 44d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 56d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $4 56d
Trail Blazers vs. Suns BUY Suns 59¢ $7 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +87.7% +69.8% 100% 100% +72.8%
≤30d 8 +42.2% +28.7% 75% 75% +35.3%
≤90d 21 -10.5% -19.0% 52% 48% -20.2%
all 49 -8.4% -17.1% 61% 45% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 45% -17.2%
10% -25.0% 31% -25.2%
15% -32.3% 20% -32.4%
20% -38.9% 16% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.85 · official $58.85 (match) · 100 history records