trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Knicks | 36¢ | 36¢ | $19 | $19 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 47¢ | 48¢ | $10 | $11 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes | Hurricanes | 59¢ | 100¢ | $3 | $6 | +$2 (+69%) |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 30¢ | 81¢ | $2 | $5 | +$3 (+174%) |
| Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? | Yes | 46¢ | 48¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+5%) |
| Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets | New York Mets | 54¢ | 50¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-6%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 84¢ | 83¢ | $4 | $4 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | Yes | 57¢ | 56¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline | Knicks | 39¢ | 38¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B | FURIA | 71¢ | 0¢ | $7 | $0 | −$7 (-100%) |
| Canadiens vs. Lightning | Lightning | 56¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | Thunder | 76¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 216.5 | Over | 54¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Karl Poling | Blaise Bicknell | 73¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Wild vs. Avalanche | Wild | 85¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 59¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Spread: Nuggets (-10.5) | Nuggets | 56¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Mavericks vs. Pelicans | Mavericks | 52¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | Pistons | 62¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England win on 2026-06-10? | Jun 11 | $3 | $0 | +15% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 11 | $8 | +$6 | +81% |
| Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes | Jun 10 | $3 | +$2 | +68% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 10 | $4 | +$7 | +186% |
| Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Karl Poling | Jun 04 | $3 | −$3 | -98% |
| Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets | Jun 04 | $9 | +$2 | +25% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 04 | $3 | +$5 | +163% |
| Wild vs. Avalanche | May 14 | $3 | −$3 | -99% |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | May 14 | $3 | $0 | +11% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 14 | $9 | −$5 | -54% |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | May 14 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Magic vs. Pistons | May 13 | $6 | +$1 | +16% |
| Raptors vs. Cavaliers | May 13 | $6 | +$4 | +73% |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B | Apr 30 | $7 | −$7 | -99% |
| Canadiens vs. Lightning | Apr 30 | $5 | −$5 | -99% |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | Apr 30 | $4 | $0 | -3% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Suns | Apr 28 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| TikTok sale announced in 2025? | Apr 28 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 21? | Apr 22 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Apr 17 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Heat vs. Hornets | Apr 17 | $5 | +$2 | +40% |
| Spread: Nuggets (-10.5) | Mar 02 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 216.5 | Mar 02 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Nuggets vs. Celtics | Feb 28 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Jazz vs. Rockets | Feb 28 | $5 | +$1 | +16% |
| Bulls vs. Rockets | Jan 26 | $3 | +$1 | +20% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | Jan 26 | $6 | +$2 | +35% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-27? | Jan 07 | $6 | +$3 | +43% |
| Jazz vs. Nuggets | Jan 07 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | Dec 25 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Pelicans vs. Cavaliers | Dec 25 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Hornets vs. Cavaliers | Dec 24 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Grizzlies vs. Thunder | Dec 24 | $2 | $0 | +12% |
| 49ers vs. Colts | Dec 24 | $2 | +$1 | +22% |
| Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Dec 24 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Rockets vs. Nuggets | Dec 24 | $3 | +$3 | +96% |
| Eagles vs. Commanders | Dec 24 | $4 | +$1 | +32% |
| Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? | Dec 24 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Bears vs. 49ers | Dec 24 | $4 | $0 | +9% |
| Canucks vs. Flyers | Dec 24 | $6 | +$1 | +24% |
| Packers vs. Bears | Dec 23 | $2 | +$2 | +92% |
| Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor | Dec 23 | $9 | −$6 | -66% |
| Mavericks vs. Pelicans | Dec 23 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Miami vs. Texas A&M | Dec 22 | $6 | +$4 | +70% |
| Hornets vs. Pistons | Dec 22 | $3 | +$1 | +24% |
| Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Dec 20 | $3 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on December 15? | Dec 20 | $4 | $0 | +2% |
| Pistons vs. Celtics | Dec 20 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Rainbow FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Dec 15 | $3 | −$1 | -28% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +87.7% | +69.8% | 100% | 100% | +72.8% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +42.2% | +28.7% | 75% | 75% | +35.3% |
| ≤90d | 21 | -10.5% | -19.0% | 52% | 48% | -20.2% |
| all | 49 | -8.4% | -17.1% | 61% | 45% | -17.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -17.1% | 45% | -17.2% |
| 10% | -25.0% | 31% | -25.2% |
| 15% | -32.3% | 20% | -32.4% |
| 20% | -38.9% | 16% | -39.0% |