Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:57:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1111…d8dc sports 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$56 (-6%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%34W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$103
other 41% −$144
world 1% +$1
crypto 0% −$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +21.2% +9.6% 100% 100% +9.6%
≤30d 1 +21.2% +9.6% 100% 100% +9.6%
≤90d 10 -9.6% -18.2% 50% 50% -22.6%
all 81 -15.4% -23.5% 42% 35% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 35% -13.8%
10% -30.8% 26% -22.0%
15% -37.5% 21% -29.5%
20% -43.6% 15% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses34 / 47
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 81
History coverage230d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 24 $99 +$21 +21%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $51 −$50 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? May 10 $4 +$3 +62%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $5 +$3 +67%
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5 May 07 $5 −$2 -39%
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $6 +$4 +70%
Gaziantep FK vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 3.5 May 01 $5 +$6 +123%
Will Sevilla FC vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-03-13? Mar 13 $10 −$9 -90%
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Samsunspor: Both Teams to Score Mar 08 $5 +$5 +108%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-01-30? Jan 30 $8 −$7 -88%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jan 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jan 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Eyüpspor vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 4.5 Jan 26 $150 +$61 +41%
XRP Up or Down - January 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $98 −$98 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Nemiga - Map 2 Winner Jan 25 $5 −$3 -60%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Nemiga - Map 1 Winner Jan 25 $3 +$1 +49%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $31 −$17 -56%
Counter-Strike: kONO.ECF vs AaB esport (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Gr Jan 25 $2 $0 -8%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs Jan 24 $100 +$16 +16%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jan 24 $3 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jan 24 $2 +$2 +115%
Will Rams Başakşehir FK win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $5 +$7 +150%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-23? Jan 23 $65 +$25 +39%
Will Fenerbahçe SK vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Jan 22 $1 $0 -5%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-21? Jan 21 $48 +$18 +37%
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - IEM Rio: Global Clo Jan 21 $1 $0 -37%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-20? Jan 21 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-20? Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs NIP (BO3) Jan 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs NIP - Map 2 Winner Jan 15 $22 +$2 +10%
Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs ARCRED - Map 2 Winner Jan 15 $8 −$1 -7%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) Jan 15 $2 $0 +13%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner Jan 15 $5 $0 +8%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-14? Jan 14 $4 +$1 +25%
1. FC Köln vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Jan 14 $1 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs petardka (BO3) Jan 14 $6 +$1 +22%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs petardka - Map 2 Winner Jan 14 $2 $0 +16%
Counter-Strike: los kogutos vs STATE (BO3) Jan 14 $2 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: FriendlyCampers vs Heroic (BO3) Jan 14 $1 −$1 -82%
Counter-Strike: CSDIILIT vs MASONIC (BO3) Jan 14 $1 $0 -32%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs MINLATE (BO3) Jan 14 $3 $0 -13%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Passion UA (BO3) Jan 14 $33 +$2 +7%
Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs STATE (BO3) Jan 14 $4 −$4 -89%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw? Jan 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-13? Jan 13 $6 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group SELL AM Gaming 100¢ $120 1h
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY AM Gaming 82¢ $99 2h
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 87¢ $51 41d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 42d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY Aurora Gaming 15¢ $1 43d
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 45d
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $4 45d
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-05-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 45d
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 45d
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 24¢ $3 47d
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $5 47d
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer SELL Yes 100¢ $10 48d
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 58¢ $6 48d
Gaziantep FK vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $11 53d
Gaziantep FK vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 44¢ $5 53d
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-03-13? SELL Yes $1 102d
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-03-13? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 102d
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Samsunspor: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $10 107d
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Samsunspor: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 107d
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-01-30? SELL Yes $1 144d
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-01-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 144d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - European Pro League Serie BUY AM Gaming 56¢ $2 148d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 148d
Eyüpspor vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $211 148d
Eyüpspor vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $150 148d
XRP Up or Down - January 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down $1 149d
XRP Up or Down - January 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down $2 149d
XRP Up or Down - January 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down $1 149d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-25? BUY Yes 70¢ $98 149d
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Nemiga - Map 2 Winner BUY 1WIN 28¢ $3 149d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 204 history records