Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:58:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1111…1f86 sports 340 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$634 (-8%) realized −$638 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%194W / 145L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$294now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$211
7 days+$217
14 days−$138
30 days−$268
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$574
other 5% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +0.7% -8.9% 68% 60% -3.9%
≤30d 193 -10.9% -19.4% 55% 52% -14.3%
≤90d 339 -10.4% -18.9% 57% 55% -16.3%
all 339 -10.4% -18.9% 57% 55% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 55% -16.3%
10% -26.7% 46% -24.3%
15% -33.8% 36% -31.6%
20% -40.3% 22% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$294
Realized−$638
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses194 / 145
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions1
Markets (closed)339 / 340
History coverage54d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 339 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $290 $294 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1,365 −$154 -11%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $491 +$181 +37%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $502 +$185 +37%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $498 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $9 +$6 +59%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $24 +$6 +24%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +100%
Will Monte qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $185 +$15 +8%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $13 +$7 +52%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$4 +56%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $35 +$5 +15%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $12 +$8 +61%
Will PARIVISION qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $52 +$7 +13%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $23 +$7 +30%
Will B8 qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $134 +$10 +7%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $16 +$4 +27%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $43 −$43 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $17 +$3 +16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $7 +$3 +43%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $14 +$6 +45%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $15 +$5 +37%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $7 +$3 +52%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $8 +$2 +27%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $15 +$5 +30%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $8 +$2 +32%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $6 $0 +2%
Will BetBoom qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 09 $179 −$179 -100%
Will 9z qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 09 $212 −$212 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $22 +$8 +33%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $7 +$3 +35%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $11 +$4 +42%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $3 +$2 +67%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 72¢ $715 16m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 68¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 68¢ $669 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $672 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 73¢ $491 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 54¢ $495 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $8 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $486 18h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $194 19h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $686 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 73¢ $6 26h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 73¢ $496 26h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 65¢ $498 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $6 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $492 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $6 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 63¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 63¢ $6 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 81¢ $24 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 5¢ $0 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 59¢ $6 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $9 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $13 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 87¢ $9 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 87¢ $16 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 87¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 68¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 68¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 62¢ $12 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $294.00 · official $294.00 (match) · 926 history records