Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:48:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
11 0x1112…3104 sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$286 (+20%) realized +$286 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$290per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$483
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +28.9% +16.6% 80% 60% +20.7%
≤30d 5 +28.9% +16.6% 80% 60% +20.7%
≤90d 5 +28.9% +16.6% 80% 60% +20.7%
all 5 +28.9% +16.6% 80% 60% +20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.6% 60% +20.7%
10% +5.4% 40% +9.1%
15% -4.7% 40% -1.4%
20% -14.1% 20% -11.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$14 · ×8.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×35.95 per $1 lost it wins $35.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$286
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$290
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 27 $254 +$38 +15%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 27 $223 −$14 -6%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $355 +$178 +50%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 26 $331 +$269 +81%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Tarvet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 25 $285 +$12 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Atlanta Braves 66¢ $209 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Atlanta Braves 69¢ $223 1h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 87¢ $254 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 66¢ $355 4h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 54¢ $331 30h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Tarvet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Oliver Tarvet 96¢ $285 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records