Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:33:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1112…90db sports 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$282 (-8%) realized −$281 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate30%33W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$183
14 days−$183
30 days−$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$273
other 2% +$9
crypto 1% −$17
weather 1% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-36.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -48.4% -53.3% 27% 24% -27.1%
≤30d 46 -49.5% -54.3% 26% 24% -28.8%
≤90d 110 -29.6% -36.3% 30% 27% -17.7%
all 110 -29.6% -36.3% 30% 27% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.3% 27% -17.7%
10% -42.4% 26% -25.6%
15% -48.0% 23% -32.7%
20% -53.1% 20% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$22 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$281
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses33 / 77
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 114
History coverage63d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Draper Jack Draper 49¢ 48¢ $72 $71 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF Tulsa: Jeffrey John Wolf vs Gavin Young Jun 21 $56 +$60 +108%
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Camila Osorio vs Ajla Tomljanovi Jun 20 $14 −$14 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $16 −$2 -14%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Indianna Spink vs Kimberly Birre Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov Jun 20 $118 −$65 -55%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Antoine Ghibaudo vs Petr Bar Bi Jun 20 $13 −$13 -98%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Ziga Sesko Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
ITF Haskovo: Martha Matoula vs Berfu Cengiz Jun 20 $53 +$55 +103%
ITF Sapporo: Gaeul Jang vs Aishi Das Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
ITF Sapporo: Ayumi Miyamoto vs Sae Noguchi Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$1 +5%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
ITF Tulsa: Jeffrey John Wolf vs Christian Langmo Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
ITF Irvine: Isabella Marton vs Alina Shcherbinina Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 19 $47 +$7 +14%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Ayla Aksu Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $40 +$25 +62%
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide Jun 19 $10 +$30 +291%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva Jun 19 $15 +$13 +86%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $25 +$10 +39%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $31 +$72 +234%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola Jun 18 $37 +$10 +26%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 18 $41 +$16 +40%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
ITF Haskovo: Iva Ivanova vs Martha Matoula Jun 18 $45 +$13 +29%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $22 −$22 -98%
Oeiras 4: Lucia Bronzetti vs Varvara Lepchenko Apr 22 $65 −$64 -98%
Madrid Open: Daria Snigur vs Daria Kasatkina Apr 22 $20 +$25 +126%
Shymkent: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Dali Blanch Apr 22 $53 −$52 -97%
Madrid Open: Damir Dzumhur vs Mattia Bellucci Apr 22 $30 −$29 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Draper BUY Jack Draper 49¢ $73 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 2h
ITF Tulsa: Jeffrey John Wolf vs Gavin Young SELL Jeffrey John Wolf 99¢ $76 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 50¢ $10 4h
ITF Tulsa: Jeffrey John Wolf vs Gavin Young BUY Jeffrey John Wolf 41¢ $10 4h
ITF Tulsa: Jeffrey John Wolf vs Gavin Young BUY Jeffrey John Wolf 38¢ $20 4h
ITF Tulsa: Jeffrey John Wolf vs Gavin Young SELL Gavin Young 62¢ $40 4h
ITF Tulsa: Jeffrey John Wolf vs Gavin Young BUY Gavin Young 38¢ $10 5h
ITF Tulsa: Jeffrey John Wolf vs Gavin Young BUY Gavin Young 38¢ $15 5h
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo BUY Adolfo Vallejo 2¢ $2 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Camila Osorio vs Ajla Tomljanovi BUY Camila Osorio 16¢ $14 36h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Jessica Pegula 60¢ $14 36h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 68¢ $16 36h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Indianna Spink vs Kimberly Birre BUY Indianna Spink 7¢ $4 37h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Titouan Droguet 29¢ $13 37h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Antoine Ghibaudo vs Petr Bar Bi BUY Petr Bar Biryukov 14¢ $3 37h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Titouan Droguet 58¢ $51 37h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Ziga Sesko BUY Ziga Sesko 5¢ $3 37h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Antoine Ghibaudo vs Petr Bar Bi BUY Petr Bar Biryukov 20¢ $10 37h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc BUY Tamara Korpatsch 36¢ $7 37h
ITF Haskovo: Martha Matoula vs Berfu Cengiz SELL Martha Matoula 99¢ $108 37h
ITF Haskovo: Martha Matoula vs Berfu Cengiz BUY Martha Matoula 33¢ $2 39h
ITF Haskovo: Martha Matoula vs Berfu Cengiz BUY Martha Matoula 49¢ $51 40h
ITF Sapporo: Gaeul Jang vs Aishi Das BUY Gaeul Jang 42¢ $15 42h
ITF Sapporo: Ayumi Miyamoto vs Sae Noguchi BUY Sae Noguchi 55¢ $15 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $26 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 42h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND BUY 36¢ $15 2d
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt BUY Guido Justo 35¢ $15 2d
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez BUY Conner Huertas Del Pino 13¢ $21 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.64 · official $70.64 (match) · 209 history records