Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:33:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

11
0x1117…3532
sports · 78 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$3,736,101 -537%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,546,911 · open −$189,190
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$212,204
Realized−$3,546,911
Unrealized−$189,190
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses36 / 479
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Est. fees paid−$10,229
Open positions23
Markets (closed)515 / 78
Avg bet$8,915
Trades / day1257.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 23 History 515 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,502,264
7 days−$3,546,911
14 days−$3,546,911
30 days−$3,546,911
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 70¢ 19¢ $229,633 $61,693 −$167,941 (-73%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 52¢ 52¢ $36,400 $36,050 −$350 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 51¢ 52¢ $20,499 $20,800 +$301 (+1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Josh Hokit 76¢ 78¢ $13,301 $13,581 +$281 (+2%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 58¢ 44¢ $16,144 $12,195 −$3,948 (-24%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Dodgers 56¢ 56¢ $11,200 $11,298 +$98 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 50¢ 52¢ $10,000 $10,500 +$500 (+5%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 40¢ 20¢ $20,050 $9,975 −$10,075 (-50%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 57¢ 62¢ $8,920 $9,624 +$704 (+8%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 41¢ 19¢ $16,578 $7,794 −$8,784 (-53%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Milwaukee Brewers 49¢ 64¢ $5,137 $6,709 +$1,572 (+31%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 34¢ $3,251 $3,301 +$49 (+2%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets New York Mets 51¢ 52¢ $1,711 $1,728 +$17 (+1%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $1,628 $1,691 +$63 (+4%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $1,433 $1,461 +$29 (+2%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Seattle Mariners 57¢ 57¢ $1,009 $1,018 +$9 (+1%)
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Gabriela Ruse Barbora Krejcikova 64¢ 84¢ $587 $775 +$188 (+32%)
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Harriet Dart 52¢ 55¢ $664 $696 +$32 (+5%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $632 $639 +$7 (+1%)
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Knicks 49¢ 52¢ $241 $253 +$12 (+5%)
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 22¢ 22¢ $219 $224 +$5 (+2%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Over 58¢ 58¢ $177 $178 +$2 (+1%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $1,980 $21 −$1,959 (-99%)
Roland Garros WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Leolia Jeanjean Leolia Jeanjean 52¢ 0¢ $2,557 $0 −$2,557 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Card) Daniel Santos 59¢ 0¢ $46,862 $0 −$46,862 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Roland Garros WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 12 $2,557 −$2,557 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 12 $46,862 −$46,862 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $5,079 −$5,079 -100%
Bruins vs. Sabres Jun 12 $20,589 −$20,589 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $3,745 −$3,745 -100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 12 $2,423 −$2,423 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 12 $117 −$117 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 12 $4,079 −$4,079 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $7,740 −$7,740 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers Jun 12 $1,911 −$1,911 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5 Jun 12 $23,800 −$23,800 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 12 $2,335 −$2,335 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Jun 12 $21,850 −$21,850 -100%
Spread: New York Liberty (-11.5) Jun 12 $1,517 −$1,517 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai Jun 12 $125,825 −$125,825 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 12 $8,850 −$8,850 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5) Jun 12 $40,599 −$40,599 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 12 $6,094 −$6,094 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 12 $22,000 −$22,000 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Madison Keys vs Peyton Stearns Jun 12 $838 −$838 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 12 $20,811 −$20,811 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics Jun 12 $2,935 −$2,935 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 12 $11,015 −$11,015 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $4,800 −$4,800 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 12 $140 −$140 -100%
Spread: New York Liberty (-12.5) Jun 12 $7,740 −$7,740 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 12 $302 −$302 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Jun 12 $155,026 −$155,026 -100%
Athletics vs. Texas Rangers Jun 12 $5,600 −$5,600 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 12 $460 −$460 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics Jun 12 $1,288 −$1,288 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Jun 12 $31,353 −$31,353 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers Jun 12 $11,305 −$11,305 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 12 $7,463 −$7,463 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 12 $6,442 −$6,442 -100%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-12.5) Jun 12 $4,339 −$4,339 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Jun 12 $497 −$497 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $6,139 −$6,139 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 12 $7,050 −$7,050 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Preli Jun 12 $40,000 −$40,000 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $3,403 −$3,403 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 12 $1,316 −$1,316 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina Jun 12 $29,708 −$29,708 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Jun 12 $3,713 −$3,713 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $57,000 −$57,000 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5 Jun 12 $5,200 −$5,200 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics Jun 12 $1,571 −$1,571 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Jun 12 $47,334 −$47,334 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $5,100 −$5,100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 66% +$138,286
other 32% −$180,700
crypto 3% −$350
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $10 5m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $17 5m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $304 5m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $82 21m
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $15 27m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 28m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 51¢ $102 35m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $114 36m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $114 36m
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 38m
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $37 39m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 51¢ $2 41m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 51¢ $31 44m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 47¢ $42 44m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $3 46m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $3 47m
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $140 49m
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $5 53m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 54m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 51¢ $13 55m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 51¢ $12 55m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 51¢ $16 56m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 51¢ $16 56m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 51¢ $16 57m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 51¢ $17 57m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 51¢ $19 59m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 51¢ $18 59m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 51¢ $20 59m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 51¢ $19 59m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 51¢ $3 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-86.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 515 -84.5% -86.0% 7% 7% -83.6%
≤30d 515 -84.5% -86.0% 7% 7% -83.6%
≤90d 515 -84.5% -86.0% 7% 7% -83.6%
all 515 -84.5% -86.0% 7% 7% -83.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1257.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -86.0% 7% -83.6%
10% -87.3% 7% -85.2%
15% ← realistic here -88.6% 7% -86.6%
20% -89.7% 6% -87.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212,204.25 · official $212,206.26 (match) · 3500 history records