Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:55:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
11 0x111a…4c12 world 15 markets active 4d ago coverage 456d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$4
other 24% $0
finance 14% $0
politics 7% $0
tech 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -4.5% -13.6% 0% 0% -12.7%
≤30d 5 -3.6% -12.8% 0% 0% -12.0%
≤90d 5 -3.6% -12.8% 0% 0% -12.0%
all 15 -0.8% -10.3% 40% 0% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -11.0%
10% -18.8% 0% -19.5%
15% -26.7% 0% -27.3%
20% -33.9% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

456d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage456d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $35 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $21 −$2 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $20 −$2 -9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 27 $11 $0 +4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C May 07 $1 $0 +4%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? Apr 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Mar 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? Mar 23 $13 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 14-21? Mar 15 $13 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $21 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $10 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $30 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $30 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $30 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $15 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $5 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $21 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 20¢ $18 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 22¢ $20 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $31 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $31 7d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 90¢ $0 183d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1 337d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? SELL No 100¢ $11 355d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 356d
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? BUY No 99¢ $2 392d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? BUY No 96¢ $11 426d
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? SELL No 99¢ $11 426d
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? BUY No 99¢ $11 428d
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C BUY No 96¢ $1 432d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 98¢ $12 446d
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? SELL Yes $0 450d
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? SELL Yes $0 450d
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? SELL Yes $0 450d
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? SELL Yes $0 450d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $12 450d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records