Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:56:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x111e…3838 other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$838 (-39%) realized −$836 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%10W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$634now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$845
14 days−$845
30 days−$845
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$144
sports 40% −$704
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -25.4% -32.5% 40% 36% -60.5%
≤30d 25 -25.4% -32.5% 40% 36% -60.5%
≤90d 25 -25.4% -32.5% 40% 36% -60.5%
all 25 -25.4% -32.5% 40% 36% -60.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.5% 36% -60.5%
10% -39.0% 36% -64.3%
15% -44.9% 36% -67.7%
20% -50.3% 28% -70.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$72 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$634
Realized−$836
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses10 / 15
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions14
Markets (closed)25 / 39
History coverage7d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $35 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $41 +$53 +131%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +55%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 +$22 +216%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $82 +$39 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $44 +$17 +37%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$3 -6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $496 −$496 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$45 +90%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $99 −$99 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $39 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $35 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 49¢ $29 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 38¢ $12 40h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 40h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 40h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 40h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 40h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 40h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 40h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 40h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $94 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $41 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 3d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 31¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 81¢ $61 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $48 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $633.63 · official $633.64 (match) · 65 history records