Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:43:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
11 0x111e…3753 politics 95 markets active 0h ago coverage 390d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable politics specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$4,816 (+3%) realized −$3,668 · open +$8,484
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate65%49W / 26L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,700per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$31,338now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 390d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% +$596
politics 29% +$8,293
economics 15% −$8,774
sports 9% +$1,514
world 8% +$1,170
crypto 4% +$183
culture 1% +$13
finance 0% −$33
tech 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-33.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 20 -84.6% -86.0% 15% 0% -74.7%
≤90d 20 -84.6% -86.0% 15% 0% -74.7%
all 75 -26.8% -33.8% 65% 5% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.8% 5% -15.3%
10% -40.1% 0% -23.4%
15% -45.9% 0% -30.8%
20% -51.2% 0% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -72% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$1,830) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$540 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

390d coverage
Net worth$31,338
Realized−$3,668
Unrealized+$8,484
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses49 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Open positions37
Markets (closed)75 / 95
History coverage390d
Avg bet$1,700
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-36 House seat? No 0¢ 98¢ $0 $3,371 +$3,371 (+0%)
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-04 House seat? No 0¢ 92¢ $0 $2,498 +$2,498 (+0%)
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-11 House seat? No 89¢ 86¢ $2,117 $2,044 −$73 (-3%)
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-20 House seat? No 90¢ 92¢ $1,921 $1,981 +$60 (+3%)
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? Yes 90¢ 82¢ $1,529 $1,400 −$129 (-8%)
Will the Republican Party win the CA-20 House seat? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $1,350 $1,388 +$38 (+3%)
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-05 House seat? No 0¢ 92¢ $0 $1,376 +$1,376 (+0%)
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-06 House seat? No 0¢ 97¢ $0 $1,354 +$1,354 (+0%)
Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $1,289 $1,277 −$12 (-1%)
Will the Republican Party win the MS-03 House seat? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $1,141 $1,186 +$44 (+4%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat? No 87¢ 86¢ $1,097 $1,086 −$11 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party win the AR-02 House seat? No 88¢ 88¢ $1,085 $1,085 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-01 House seat? No 91¢ 92¢ $986 $1,001 +$16 (+2%)
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026? Yes 89¢ 87¢ $1,027 $999 −$27 (-3%)
Will the Republican Party win the TX-05 House seat? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $881 $876 −$5 (-1%)
Will the Republican Party win the MI-02 House seat? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $798 $838 +$40 (+5%)
Will the Democratic Party win the IN-07 House seat? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $775 $805 +$30 (+4%)
Will the Democratic Party win the GA-10 House seat? No 88¢ 90¢ $727 $748 +$21 (+3%)
Will the Republican Party win the FL-11 House seat? Yes 88¢ 82¢ $744 $694 −$50 (-7%)
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026? No 90¢ 88¢ $537 $528 −$9 (-2%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-20 House seat? Yes 90¢ 86¢ $530 $510 −$20 (-4%)
Will the Republican Party win the FL-03 House seat? Yes 90¢ 84¢ $546 $507 −$39 (-7%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-07 House seat? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $477 $496 +$19 (+4%)
Will the Republican Party win the FL-01 House seat? Yes 91¢ 81¢ $531 $475 −$55 (-10%)
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-05 House seat? Yes 88¢ 93¢ $431 $453 +$23 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Sanseitō win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general el Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Democratic Party for the People win the third-most seats in t Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Conservative Party of Japan win the third-most seats in the 2 Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Federico Valverde win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Alexander Isak win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 22 $2,479 −$2,479 -100%
Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win the third-most seats in the 2026 Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Reiwa Shinsengumi win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese g Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will de Goes Rodrygo win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Jamal Musiala win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the Japanese Communist Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026? May 27 $164 +$10 +6%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of February? May 27 $323 +$3 +1%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in February 2026? May 27 $606 +$13 +2%
Will the Social Democratic Party be part of the governing coalition as Feb 20 $145 +$11 +8%
Will the Conservative Party of Japan be part of the governing coalitio Feb 20 $285 +$32 +11%
Will Team Mirai be part of the governing coalition as a result of the Feb 20 $296 +$24 +8%
Will the Japanese Communist Party be part of the governing coalition a Feb 20 $439 +$6 +1%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Aragon Regional Election? Feb 10 $2,077 +$83 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $42 by end of January? Feb 05 $219 +$6 +3%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of January? Feb 05 $494 +$6 +1%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in January 2026? Feb 05 $1,040 +$10 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of January? Feb 05 $1,073 +$10 +1%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the January meeting? Jan 29 $982 +$18 +2%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $959 +$41 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of January? Jan 23 $400 −$39 -10%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 m Jan 23 $6,485 +$27 +0%
Will Team Mirai win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general Jan 21 $103 −$103 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Jan 19 $958 −$5 -0%
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2025? Jan 16 $1,734 +$131 +8%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2025? Jan 16 $2,299 +$204 +9%
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2025? Jan 16 $10,962 +$1,180 +11%
Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in 2025? Jan 13 $1,415 −$32 -2%
Pepe ETF in 2025? Jan 13 $277 +$28 +10%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 13 $2,727 +$113 +4%
Fed rate cut by January 2026 meeting? Jan 13 $893 +$10 +1%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? Jan 13 $939 +$62 +7%
US stagflation in 2025? Jan 13 $1,830 +$170 +9%
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2025? Jan 13 $10,447 +$1,148 +11%
Will neither OP_CTV nor OP_CAT be activated in 2025? Jan 13 $3,849 +$123 +3%
Fed rate hike in 2025? Jan 13 $7,353 +$443 +6%
Another US debt downgrade in 2025? Jan 13 $7,482 +$740 +10%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 15 $940 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 15 $989 +$9 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-05 House seat? BUY No 92¢ $1,381 13m
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-36 House seat? BUY No 92¢ $3,166 1h
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-04 House seat? BUY No 92¢ $2,492 1h
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-06 House seat? BUY No 92¢ $1,292 2h
Will the Democratic Party win the SC-02 House seat? SELL No 81¢ $1,048 41d
Will the Republican Party win the CA-20 House seat? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,350 118d
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-20 House seat? BUY No 90¢ $1,631 118d
Will the Republican Party win the TX-05 House seat? BUY Yes 90¢ $881 122d
Will the Democratic Party win the IN-07 House seat? BUY Yes 90¢ $775 122d
Will the Democratic Party win the KY-03 House seat? BUY Yes 90¢ $208 122d
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-05 House seat? BUY Yes 89¢ $392 122d
Will the Democratic Party win the GA-10 House seat? BUY No 88¢ $727 122d
Will the Republican Party win the MI-02 House seat? BUY Yes 90¢ $798 122d
Will the Republican Party win the MS-03 House seat? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,141 122d
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-24 House seat? BUY Yes 90¢ $351 124d
Will the Republican Party win the FL-24 House seat? BUY No 90¢ $212 124d
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $331 124d
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? BUY No 86¢ $258 124d
Will the Democratic Party win the SC-02 House seat? BUY No 87¢ $484 125d
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-20 House seat? BUY No 88¢ $290 125d
Will the Democratic Party win the AR-02 House seat? BUY No 88¢ $1,085 126d
Will the Democratic Party win the SC-02 House seat? BUY No 88¢ $749 126d
Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat? BUY Yes 85¢ $552 126d
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat? BUY No 86¢ $376 126d
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $164 131d
Bitcoin BIP-360 implemented in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $52 131d
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-20 House seat? BUY Yes 90¢ $530 132d
Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat? BUY Yes 87¢ $737 132d
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat? BUY No 88¢ $721 132d
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-11 House seat? BUY No 89¢ $818 132d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31,338.20 · official $31,338.27 (match) · 372 history records