Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:29:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
11 0x111f…af00 other 246 markets active 1h ago coverage 609d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6,189 (-9%) realized −$6,373 · open +$184
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate51%123W / 116L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$291per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$2,056now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days+$95
14 days+$95
30 days+$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% +$3,427
politics 25% −$8,095
sports 16% −$1,592
tech 7% −$993
crypto 7% −$408
culture 6% −$220
economics 5% +$491
world 2% +$1,211
weather 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +11.1% +0.5% 100% 25% +0.3%
≤30d 8 +11.1% +0.5% 100% 25% +0.3%
≤90d 17 -22.6% -30.0% 65% 29% -7.9%
all 239 -22.3% -29.7% 51% 38% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 38% -17.8%
10% -36.4% 23% -25.7%
15% -42.6% 16% -32.9%
20% -48.2% 10% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$155 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

609d coverage
Net worth$2,056
Realized−$6,373
Unrealized+$184
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses123 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions7
Markets (closed)239 / 246
History coverage609d
Avg bet$291
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No 24¢ 28¢ $550 $651 +$101 (+18%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 95¢ 98¢ $500 $513 +$13 (+3%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 73¢ 88¢ $400 $485 +$85 (+21%)
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $230 $225 −$5 (-2%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 61¢ 82¢ $77 $104 +$27 (+36%)
Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding? Yes 80¢ 48¢ $70 $42 −$28 (-41%)
RFK Jr. Out by December 31? Yes 73¢ 58¢ $45 $36 −$9 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $140 +$30 +21%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem Jun 16 $616 +$54 +9%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 NBA Jun 16 $26 +$2 +8%
Will Liam rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025? Jun 16 $20 +$7 +34%
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be between Jun 16 $3 $0 +5%
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be between Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be between Jun 16 $18 +$1 +4%
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be between Jun 16 $31 +$1 +4%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Apr 27 $199 −$199 -100%
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be at leas Apr 13 $48 −$10 -21%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 12 $300 −$31 -10%
Will Sabrina Carpenter arrest Madonna during Juno? Apr 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Apr 10 $100 +$13 +13%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 Apr 10 $124 +$25 +20%
Will the Houston Rockets finish with the best record in the NBA? Apr 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets finish with the best record in the NBA? Apr 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder finish with the best record in the NBA? Apr 10 $1,496 +$183 +12%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Mar 19 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Juliana Stratton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois Mar 19 $75 +$117 +156%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 18 $75 −$73 -97%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Mar 18 $20 +$6 +32%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026? Mar 18 $250 +$75 +30%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026? Mar 18 $100 +$43 +43%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 18 $400 +$341 +85%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 18 $180 +$731 +406%
Will Mamdani make NYC buses free by March 31? Feb 20 $135 +$14 +11%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Will "Jump ball" be said at the Super Bowl? Feb 19 $20 +$9 +43%
Will "Now here's a guy" be said at the Super Bowl? Feb 19 $26 +$101 +389%
Will "Flushed out" or "Flush out" be said at the Super Bowl? Feb 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Feb 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 24 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Jan 24 $80 −$9 -11%
Will Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) be nominated for Achievement in Jan 24 $23 +$5 +23%
Will The Secret Agent be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academ Jan 22 $31 +$5 +17%
Will Train Dreams be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Aw Jan 22 $74 +$15 +20%
Will Amy Madigan be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Jan 22 $93 +$19 +20%
Will Timothée Chalamet be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Jan 22 $350 +$9 +3%
Will Ryan Coogler be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy A Jan 22 $460 +$81 +18%
Will Chloé Zhao be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awa Jan 22 $152 +$17 +11%
Will Sean Penn be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Acad Jan 22 $444 +$23 +5%
Will Nina Gold (Hamnet) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the Jan 22 $119 +$33 +27%
Andrew Tate guilty of human trafficking in 2025? Jan 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Jan 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Will RFK end COVID-19 vaccine recommendation in 2025? Jan 22 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jan 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? Jan 22 $6,107 −$4,682 -77%
Will the next James Bond be British? Jan 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jan 22 $100 −$85 -85%
Will Weapons be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jan 22 $46 −$46 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY Yes 55¢ $31 1h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY Yes 53¢ $204 1h
RFK Jr. Out by December 31? BUY Yes 73¢ $45 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $19 37h
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec BUY Yes 65¢ $100 51d
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be at leas SELL Yes 86¢ $6 65d
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be at leas SELL Yes 86¢ $32 65d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 33¢ $114 66d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 33¢ $16 66d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 66d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 35¢ $35 66d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 26¢ $200 66d
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be at leas BUY Yes 88¢ $20 66d
Will Sabrina Carpenter arrest Madonna during Juno? BUY Yes 93¢ $13 68d
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be between BUY No 97¢ $1 68d
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be between BUY No 97¢ $1 68d
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be at leas BUY Yes 83¢ $18 68d
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be between BUY No 96¢ $17 68d
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be between BUY No 96¢ $13 68d
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be between BUY No 95¢ $3 68d
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be at leas BUY No 94¢ $10 68d
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $113 68d
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be between BUY No 96¢ $31 68d
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 73¢ $400 69d
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 BUY No 23¢ $150 69d
Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding? BUY Yes 80¢ $70 69d
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $100 69d
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 BUY No 24¢ $150 90d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 75¢ $150 90d
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec BUY Yes 32¢ $15 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,055.80 · official $2,053.01 (match) · 1194 history records