Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:20:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
11 0x1120…f709 world 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 333d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$28 (+0%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate43%28W / 37L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$12
14 days+$19
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$1
other 27% +$17
world 26% +$17
politics 15% +$1
economics 3% +$1
finance 0% −$8
crypto 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.3% -10.7% 29% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 23 +0.5% -9.1% 39% 13% -9.0%
≤90d 34 +0.4% -9.2% 41% 9% -9.1%
all 65 +0.9% -8.7% 43% 8% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 8% -9.2%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

333d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses28 / 37
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage333d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $103 $103 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $220 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $102 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $296 −$10 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $113 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $111 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $27 −$2 -7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $76 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $6 +$1 +21%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $103 −$1 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $228 +$1 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $112 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $153 +$29 +19%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $4 $0 +9%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $57 −$11 -20%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $107 −$2 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $31 −$8 -25%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $90 +$14 +16%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $82 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $48 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $297 $0 -0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $109 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 25 $169 +$11 +6%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $321 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $1,455 +$2 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $641 +$6 +1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $86 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $476 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $304 −$3 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 18 $47 −$3 -6%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Aug 10 $3 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 31 $1 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 23 $97 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 23 $70 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 23 $85 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 23 $16 $0 +3%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 22 $86 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jul 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 22 $4 $0 +12%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 22 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $103 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $94 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $94 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $31 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $3 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $33 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $102 34h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $102 34h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $34 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $59 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $96 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $11 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $23 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $80 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $15 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $53 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $41 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $95 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $25 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $75 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $54 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $45 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $51 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $49 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $17 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $12 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $82 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $111 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.17 · official $103.33 (match) · 351 history records