Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:16:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
11 0x1121…4931 sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,600 (-13%) realized −$4,228 · open +$628
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,626per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$142est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$20,322now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$628
sports 30% −$4,258
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-38.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -32.3% -38.8% 33% 33% -56.2%
≤30d 3 -32.3% -38.8% 33% 33% -56.2%
≤90d 3 -32.3% -38.8% 33% 33% -56.2%
all 3 -32.3% -38.8% 33% 33% -56.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.8% 33% -56.2%
10% ← realistic here -44.6% 33% -60.4%
15% -50.0% 33% -64.2%
20% -54.9% 33% -67.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,030 vs −$3,144 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$20,322
Realized−$4,228
Unrealized+$628
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$142
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$5,626
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? No 96¢ 100¢ $17,326 $17,991 +$665 (+4%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 32¢ 32¢ $2,368 $2,331 −$37 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2,401 −$2,361 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $3,999 −$3,927 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1,970 +$2,030 +103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $2,416 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $3,860 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $5,773 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $7,713 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $2,401 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $1,678 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $2,321 26h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $975 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $995 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,322.00 · official $20,322.00 (match) · 10 history records