Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:40:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
11 0x1121…8a0d other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$72 (+8%) realized +$70 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate62%16W / 10L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days+$37
14 days+$37
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$9
sports 21% +$99
crypto 4% −$20
finance 2% +$21
world 1% −$5
politics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -6.2% -15.1% 44% 39% -2.5%
≤30d 20 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 40% -1.4%
≤90d 26 +3.9% -6.0% 62% 42% +2.2%
all 26 +3.9% -6.0% 62% 42% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 42% +2.2%
10% -15.0% 38% -7.5%
15% -23.2% 35% -16.5%
20% -30.7% 27% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$17 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses16 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 35
History coverage147d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $90 $97 +$7 (+8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 61¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$1 -1%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $55 −$45 -83%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$21 +104%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $33 +$18 +54%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$33 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$40 +194%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$17 -56%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$52 +170%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +41%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31? May 31 $85 +$14 +16%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 27, 2026? May 27 $10 +$1 +6%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit and tie at the World Economic Forum? May 08 $1 $0 +4%
Seahawks vs. Patriots May 08 $20 +$9 +45%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? May 08 $20 +$21 +106%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 26 $7 $0 +7%
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? Mar 26 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Wi BUY 57¢ $35 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $40 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $40 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 14¢ $1 22h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 41h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 41h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $55 43h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 44¢ $30 46h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 46h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 46h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 38¢ $41 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 14¢ $21 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14 BUY 18¢ $15 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? A BUY $10 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 48¢ $20 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $33 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $60 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 24¢ $13 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $82 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.11 · official $132.80 · 73 history records