Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:01:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1121…52b7 other 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$319 (-9%) realized −$319 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%28W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$29
14 days−$78
30 days−$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$168
sports 8% −$76
world 2% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.3% -8.3% 67% 67% -17.9%
≤30d 15 -30.8% -37.3% 40% 40% -27.6%
≤90d 61 -8.8% -17.5% 46% 44% -16.7%
all 61 -8.8% -17.5% 46% 44% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 44% -16.7%
10% -25.4% 41% -24.7%
15% -32.6% 26% -32.0%
20% -39.2% 23% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$33 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$319
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses28 / 33
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage71d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $43 +$46 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $35 −$34 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $27 +$8 +31%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $91 −$90 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $73 +$18 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $49 +$24 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $57 −$56 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $49 +$8 +16%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Carabobo FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Will CR Flamengo vs. Cusco FC end in a draw? May 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Cusco FC win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $48 +$25 +52%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 22 $50 −$1 -3%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 22 $76 −$26 -34%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $75 −$74 -99%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $117 +$34 +29%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $86 −$31 -36%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $68 −$16 -24%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $98 +$69 +70%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $96 +$48 +50%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $188 −$44 -23%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $79 −$78 -98%
Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? May 12 $191 −$12 -6%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $240 +$70 +29%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $119 −$3 -2%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $17 −$17 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $95 +$46 +48%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $72 +$23 +32%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $56 +$16 +29%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 05 $53 −$52 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $98 −$97 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $56 +$42 +76%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-03? May 02 $17 −$17 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $53 +$5 +10%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $81 −$31 -38%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $72 −$31 -43%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $83 −$14 -17%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $48 +$54 +110%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 25 $150 −$147 -98%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $130 +$65 +50%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $99 +$34 +35%
Will Real Salt Lake vs. Inter Miami CF end in a draw? Apr 23 $16 +$3 +16%
Will Toronto FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $63 +$34 +54%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $48 +$15 +30%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 21 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $48 +$34 +71%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $46 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $43 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $35 21h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $27 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $91 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $73 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $49 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 59¢ $57 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 89¢ $50 12d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 77¢ $49 12d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $43 19d
Will Carabobo FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 22d
Will CR Flamengo vs. Cusco FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 23d
Will Cusco FC win on 2026-05-26? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 23d
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 27d
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $48 27d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? SELL Yes 72¢ $48 27d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 28d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 46¢ $50 28d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $75 30d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 69¢ $76 32d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $150 32d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $117 32d
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 32d
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 32d
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 32d
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 16¢ $43 32d
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 32d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 51¢ $52 32d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $68 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.74 · official $45.74 (match) · 137 history records