Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:37:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
11 0x1126…2102 other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$21 (+2%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate52%25W / 23L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$1
other 28% +$5
politics 17% +$11
crypto 7% +$4
tech 7% $0
weather 4% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.7% -8.8% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 8 +0.6% -9.0% 38% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 8 +0.6% -9.0% 38% 0% -9.3%
all 48 +19.3% +7.9% 52% 8% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.9% 8% -7.7%
10% -2.4% 8% -16.5%
15% -11.9% 8% -24.6%
20% -20.5% 4% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.63 per $1 lost it wins $7.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses25 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage471d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 47¢ 48¢ $36 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 57¢ 52¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $77 −$1 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $36 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $40 +$2 +5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 15 $24 $0 +1%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? Jun 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Jun 10 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times June 6–13? Jun 10 $28 $0 +2%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in May 2025? Jun 09 $27 $0 +0%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 08 $28 $0 -0%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Jun 07 $27 $0 -1%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 06 $2 −$1 -33%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 06 $2 $0 +4%
Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.6%? Jun 05 $20 $0 +2%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 04 $8 +$3 +40%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $29 +$1 +4%
Will Vlad Voiculescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 02 $29 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jun 02 $24 +$3 +10%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 26 $24 +$1 +4%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 20 $23 +$1 +2%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $24 +$1 +5%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 27 $26 $0 +1%
Will 'Minecraft' gross between 110m and 120m on opening weekend? Apr 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on March 24? Mar 26 $25 $0 +2%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 24 $1 +$1 +42%
Fact Check: Did the U.S. hit Iranian spy ship? Mar 23 $24 $0 +1%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Mar 19 $15 +$10 +69%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 6? Mar 05 $16 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $36 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $40 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $40 23h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $6 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $30 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $11 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $25 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $9 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $9 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $18 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $29 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $7 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $1 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $6 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $34 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $41 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $38 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $21 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $13 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $42 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $40 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $1 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $1 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $0 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.97 · official $37.34 (match) · 164 history records