Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:46:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x112b…b88b crypto 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-3%) realized −$18 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%21W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$10
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$35
other 24% +$20
sports 2% +$4
world 2% +$13
tech 2% −$1
politics 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +2.8% -7.0% 57% 49% -11.6%
≤30d 36 +3.2% -6.6% 58% 50% -11.2%
≤90d 36 +3.2% -6.6% 58% 50% -11.2%
all 36 +3.2% -6.6% 58% 50% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 50% -11.2%
10% -15.6% 44% -19.7%
15% -23.7% 31% -27.4%
20% -31.2% 25% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses21 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage10d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET Down 56¢ 66¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$9 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $12 +$18 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$7 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$13 +128%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$11 +44%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -76%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $10 +$13 +130%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day Jun 14 $10 −$1 -12%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $33 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $32 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $30 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $32 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $32 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $12 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.69 · official $29.69 (match) · 77 history records