Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:09:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x112c…be4e other 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$38 (+0%) realized +$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate13%15W / 99L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$322per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$20
politics 36% −$15
sports 7% +$71
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% −$1
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 85 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 114 +2.0% -7.7% 13% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 4% -9.4%
10% -16.6% 4% -18.1%
15% -24.6% 3% -26.0%
20% -32.0% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$0 · ×11.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses15 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)114 / 115
History coverage124d
Avg bet$322
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $336 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $54 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $54 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $35 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $277 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $266 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $312 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $314 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $980 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $912 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $279 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $303 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $302 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $288 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $332 −$1 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $325 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $579 −$1 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $317 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $768 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $243 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $261 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $259 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $236 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $255 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $316 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $319 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $279 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $869 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $294 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $264 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $249 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $595 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $250 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $292 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $254 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $576 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $296 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 1h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $38 4d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 4d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 5d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $43 8d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $43 8d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 9d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 9d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 9d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 10d
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 10d
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 11d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 11d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 11d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 12d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 13d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $277 22d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $277 22d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $266 23d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $266 23d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $312 23d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $312 24d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $314 25d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $314 25d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $307 25d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $307 26d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $240 26d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $240 27d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $344 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.97 · official $53.97 (match) · 358 history records