Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:58:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
11 0x112c…28b8 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$144 (+40%) realized +$158 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$6
sports 36% +$143
crypto 20% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +14.6% +3.7% 33% 33% +26.1%
≤30d 18 +14.6% +3.7% 33% 33% +26.1%
≤90d 18 +14.6% +3.7% 33% 33% +26.1%
all 18 +14.6% +3.7% 33% 33% +26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.7% 33% +26.1%
10% -6.2% 28% +14.0%
15% -15.3% 28% +3.0%
20% -23.6% 22% -7.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +68% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$11 · ×3.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$158
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage5d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 26¢ $40 $26 −$14 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $47 −$45 -95%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $39 +$8 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$11 +37%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $13 −$12 -95%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$39 +195%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -95%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 −$18 -96%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $12 +$28 +238%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $22 +$149 +670%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -55%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -93%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -93%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $37 $0 -1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $19 +$18 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $42 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $47 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $39 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 32h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 47h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 47h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $59 47h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $16 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $19 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $39 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $171 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $4 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $34 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $2 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.50 · official $26.50 (match) · 33 history records