Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:28:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x112d…1720 crypto 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$30 (+8%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate38%24W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days+$59
14 days+$31
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$38
other 4% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +4.8% -5.2% 44% 34% -14.0%
≤30d 64 -11.2% -19.7% 38% 28% -20.8%
≤90d 64 -11.2% -19.7% 38% 28% -20.8%
all 64 -11.2% -19.7% 38% 28% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 28% -20.8%
10% -27.4% 16% -28.3%
15% -34.4% 9% -35.3%
20% -40.8% 6% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses24 / 40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage8d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$95 +8922%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 25 $3 +$1 +20%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 +$3 +307%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $13 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $8 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 24 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 36h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 37h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 37h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.93 · official $4.93 (match) · 134 history records