Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:22:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
11 0x1131…5cc7 other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$19 (+3%) realized +$14 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%17W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days+$11
14 days−$16
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$67
sports 14% −$28
world 13% −$21
finance 7% +$17
crypto 5% −$25
politics 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +19.9% +8.5% 56% 56% -3.9%
≤30d 19 -17.2% -25.1% 42% 42% -7.0%
≤90d 34 -12.9% -21.2% 50% 47% -9.1%
all 34 -12.9% -21.2% 50% 47% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 47% -9.1%
10% -28.8% 47% -17.8%
15% -35.6% 26% -25.7%
20% -42.0% 12% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$13 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses17 / 17
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)34 / 37
History coverage69d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+70%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $27 +$9 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$17 +33%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $13 +$9 +67%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$8 +409%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$15 +39%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $41 +$11 +27%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $68 +$96 +141%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? Jun 06 $26 +$7 +25%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 05 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? May 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $15 +$6 +41%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $20 +$6 +32%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 +$7 +65%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 06 $25 +$11 +43%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 26 $15 −$3 -18%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 26 $10 $0 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $10 +$5 +47%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Apr 25 $25 +$6 +26%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 18 $10 +$3 +30%
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-Ap Apr 17 $10 −$3 -30%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 15 $5 +$2 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $56 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 45h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $27 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 86¢ $68 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $13 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $13 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $11 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $25 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $40 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 10d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 78¢ $41 15d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 78¢ $32 17d
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? BUY Yes 79¢ $26 17d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 76¢ $26 17d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Diana Shnaider 64¢ $28 19d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 20d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 55¢ $96 20d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 21d
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 29d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 30d
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 38d
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-05-16? SELL Yes 92¢ $26 38d
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 38d
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-16? SELL Yes 63¢ $17 38d
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.98 · official $84.98 (match) · 141 history records