Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:31:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1134…572a other 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$54 (-5%) realized −$52 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%2W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day70.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$323now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$218
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-43.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -37.5% -43.5% 8% 8% -37.7%
≤30d 25 -37.5% -43.5% 8% 8% -37.7%
≤90d 25 -37.5% -43.5% 8% 8% -37.7%
all 25 -37.5% -43.5% 8% 8% -37.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.5% 8% -37.7%
10% ← realistic here -48.9% 8% -43.6%
15% -53.8% 4% -49.1%
20% -58.4% 4% -54.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$14 · ×3.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$323
Realized−$52
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses2 / 23
Open positions3
Markets (closed)25 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day70.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $148 $153 +$6 (+4%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $132 $127 −$4 (-3%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $45 $42 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $31 −$5 -17%
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $4 −$3 -72%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $72 −$35 -48%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $51 −$14 -27%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $74 −$43 -58%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $51 −$9 -17%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -8%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $59 −$44 -75%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 19 $55 −$18 -32%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $132 +$37 +28%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $41 −$11 -27%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $46 −$13 -29%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 19 $15 −$1 -5%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $38 −$29 -76%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $17 −$17 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 +$67 +649%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$2 -47%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$7 -67%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -99%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $17 12m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 14m
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 14m
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 14m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $97 22m
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 22m
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $18 29m
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 29m
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? SELL Yes 5¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 10¢ $37 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 19¢ $43 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 14¢ $31 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? SELL Yes 10¢ $13 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 7¢ $12 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? SELL Yes 12¢ $29 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? SELL Yes 6¢ $34 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 0 Morocco? SELL Yes 6¢ $34 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $38 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $322.56 · official $311.21 · 71 history records