Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:56:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1135…d15e weather 691 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d only
✗ bot/MM pace (291 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$487 (+1%) realized +$482 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate97%578W / 15L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day291.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5,698now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$277
7 days+$531
14 days+$1,197
30 days+$1,197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1,202
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (291 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 476 +1.5% -8.2% 98% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 593 +5.8% -4.3% 97% 2% -6.6%
≤90d 593 +5.8% -4.3% 97% 2% -6.6%
all 593 +5.8% -4.3% 97% 2% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover291.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.3% 2% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.4% 2% -15.5%
15% -21.8% 2% -23.7%
20% -29.5% 2% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$36 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.24 per $1 lost it wins $3.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$5,698
Realized+$482
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses578 / 15
Open positions98
Markets (closed)593 / 691
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$61
Trades / day291.4
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 98 History 593 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? No 96¢ 100¢ $140 $146 +$6 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? No 96¢ 96¢ $146 $145 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 15? No 96¢ 100¢ $129 $133 +$5 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? No 95¢ 90¢ $134 $127 −$7 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? No 96¢ 92¢ $132 $125 −$7 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? No 95¢ 100¢ $115 $121 +$6 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? No 96¢ 95¢ $109 $108 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 14? No 95¢ 100¢ $101 $106 +$5 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? No 96¢ 96¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? No 96¢ 100¢ $88 $91 +$3 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 16? No 96¢ 96¢ $87 $87 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? No 94¢ 100¢ $80 $85 +$5 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? No 94¢ 100¢ $80 $85 +$5 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 15? No 95¢ 100¢ $80 $84 +$4 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? No 95¢ 100¢ $80 $84 +$4 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 96¢ 100¢ $80 $83 +$3 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 97¢ 100¢ $80 $83 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $80 $83 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 15? No 97¢ 99¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 14? No 98¢ 100¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15? No 95¢ 97¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 16? No 98¢ 100¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 16? No 97¢ 98¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or below on June Jun 15 $48 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 15 $66 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 15 $90 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 14? Jun 15 $35 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $80 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $60 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $80 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $57 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $160 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $35 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $74 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $80 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $80 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $68 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $69 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $140 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $80 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $133 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $53 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $85 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $80 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $80 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 14? Jun 14 $80 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $69 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $18 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $80 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $80 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $131 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $34 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $140 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $46 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 14 $21 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $160 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $160 +$8 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 14 $114 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 14 $129 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 14 $57 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $80 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $61 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 14 $49 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 14 $31 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $38 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 14 $41 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 13? Jun 14 $12 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 13? Jun 14 $44 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $80 +$5 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $5 17m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $38 26m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $37 34m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $12 37m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $18 37m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $60 37m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $51 37m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $51 37m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $19 57m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $80 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $46 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $52 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or below on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $38 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $24 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $33 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $29 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $47 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $51 4h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $36 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $30 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $69 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,698.16 · official $5,698.17 (match) · 3500 history records