Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:01:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
11 0x1137…4ed5 crypto 843 markets active 0h ago coverage 172d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 171d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,369 (+1%) realized +$788 · open +$581
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate66%521W / 270L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$9,908now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$418
7 days+$460
14 days−$758
30 days−$633
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$4,094
other 18% −$353
world 14% −$905
tech 4% +$1,133
finance 3% −$702
politics 1% −$99
economics 0% −$75
sports 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +5.1% -4.9% 69% 31% -3.0%
≤30d 190 -2.3% -11.6% 67% 34% -11.6%
≤90d 418 -5.2% -14.2% 68% 31% -11.0%
all 791 -2.7% -11.9% 66% 30% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 30% -8.1%
10% -20.4% 16% -16.9%
15% -28.0% 9% -24.9%
20% -35.1% 7% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$60 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$9,908
Realized+$788
Unrealized+$581
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses521 / 270
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions52
Markets (closed)791 / 843
History coverage172d ⚠
Avg bet$201
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 52 History 791 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? No 91¢ 97¢ $1,200 $1,273 +$73 (+6%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? No 92¢ 97¢ $900 $954 +$54 (+6%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 89¢ 100¢ $600 $670 +$70 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 72¢ 95¢ $500 $661 +$161 (+32%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $530 $571 +$41 (+8%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $400 $417 +$17 (+4%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? No 78¢ 92¢ $330 $391 +$61 (+19%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? No 85¢ 99¢ $325 $380 +$55 (+17%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? No 95¢ 99¢ $300 $312 +$12 (+4%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 80¢ 88¢ $200 $220 +$20 (+10%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? No 91¢ 99¢ $200 $219 +$19 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 92¢ 100¢ $200 $216 +$16 (+8%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? No 92¢ 99¢ $200 $215 +$15 (+8%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $206 $210 +$4 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 94¢ 98¢ $200 $209 +$9 (+5%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 94¢ 97¢ $200 $207 +$7 (+4%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? Yes 88¢ 86¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-2%)
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? Yes 41¢ 32¢ $217 $165 −$52 (-24%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 91¢ 99¢ $150 $164 +$14 (+10%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 22-28? No 85¢ 99¢ $126 $146 +$20 (+16%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 83¢ 99¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? No 84¢ 98¢ $100 $117 +$17 (+17%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 84¢ 98¢ $100 $116 +$16 (+16%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 98¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? Jun 26 $50 +$4 +9%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? Jun 26 $301 +$25 +8%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? Jun 26 $200 +$17 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 26 $302 +$37 +12%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? Jun 26 $201 +$25 +12%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 26 $710 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 25 $404 +$61 +15%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? Jun 25 $101 +$10 +10%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $90-$100 in June? Jun 25 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 25 $203 +$46 +22%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 25 $50 +$4 +7%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June? Jun 25 $201 +$20 +10%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? Jun 25 $201 +$18 +9%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? Jun 25 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 25 $301 +$18 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? Jun 25 $202 −$51 -25%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 25 $500 +$41 +8%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 25 $332 +$122 +37%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 25 $10 −$6 -58%
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Jun 25 $27 +$4 +14%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 25 $51 +$13 +26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? Jun 24 $122 +$9 +7%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 24 $77 +$170 +222%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $330 +$2 +1%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? Jun 23 $77 −$48 -62%
Will Solana reach $80 June 15-21? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 23 $301 +$9 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 23 $5 +$23 +438%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 22 $660 −$49 -8%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 15-21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 22 $151 +$32 +21%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $100 +$6 +6%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $63 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $162 −$109 -67%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $305 −$82 -27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 19 $510 −$282 -55%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Jun 18 $151 −$96 -63%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $86 +$27 +31%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 16 $20 −$8 -40%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 16 $36 −$34 -94%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 16 $16 −$10 -65%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 16 $25 −$6 -23%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 16 $201 −$172 -86%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 16 $151 −$53 -35%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Jun 16 $151 −$48 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? SELL Yes 83¢ $55 3m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10? BUY No 39¢ $26 5m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 82¢ $50 11m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $326 16m
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $217 16m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY No 90¢ $50 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $340 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 89¢ $101 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? BUY No 68¢ $51 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $200 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $100 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 in July? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 14h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL Yes 97¢ $113 14h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 14h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL Yes 97¢ $113 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 65¢ $92 18h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $121 18h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 90¢ $122 18h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 63¢ $60 18h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 37¢ $56 18h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $201 24h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $100 24h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 75¢ $202 25h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $301 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $291 25h
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? SELL No 100¢ $111 25h
Will Silver (SI) settle at $90-$100 in June? SELL No 99¢ $54 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $248 25h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $54 25h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $301 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,907.68 · official $9,907.70 (match) · 3500 history records