Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:40:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1137…d2d3 sports 914 markets active 0h ago coverage 199d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$15 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%304W / 576L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$91
7 days−$63
14 days−$63
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$13
crypto 15% −$6
other 7% −$26
weather 4% −$32
world 2% −$3
politics 0% −$4
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 263 -18.4% -26.1% 43% 42% -29.3%
≤30d 263 -18.4% -26.1% 43% 42% -29.3%
≤90d 835 -15.8% -23.8% 32% 29% -21.1%
all 880 -12.4% -20.8% 35% 31% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 31% -11.3%
10% -28.3% 29% -19.8%
15% -35.3% 26% -27.5%
20% -41.6% 23% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

199d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses304 / 576
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions34
Markets (closed)880 / 914
History coverage199d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 880 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 40¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla Chun-Hsin Tseng 58¢ 65¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Map Handicap: RSTR (-1.5) vs DXA Esports (+1.5) DXA Esports 47¢ 49¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Benjamin Bonzi 51¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 43¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 69¢ 69¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Oliver Crawford 44¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-17? No 82¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 79¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Korea Republic 78¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? No 75¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 69¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Qinwen Zheng 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Emma Navarro 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Ugo Humbert 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-2.5) Golden State Valkyries 54¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku Viktoria Hruncakova 49¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 49¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Dayana Yastremska 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 46¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 41¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Seattle Storm 41¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Katerina Siniakova 35¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $1 $0 -7%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1 $0 -22%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +76%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +86%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1 $0 -13%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -10%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $1 $0 -13%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $1 −$1 -72%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -69%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +37%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +48%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +86%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +86%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 17 $1 $0 -7%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $1 $0 +35%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +43%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 17 $1 $0 +11%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $1 +$1 +75%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Monzon vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 16 $1 $0 +24%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $1 +$1 +119%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $1 +$1 +67%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Olle Wallin Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $1 +$1 +134%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $1 +$2 +165%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Dayana Yastremska 48¢ $1 1m
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY Seattle Storm 41¢ $1 8m
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-2.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 54¢ $1 41m
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Qinwen Zheng 67¢ $1 41m
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 78¢ $1 41m
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 43¢ $1 43m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 48¢ $1 44m
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 61¢ $1 51m
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Oliver Crawford 44¢ $1 1h
Map Handicap: RSTR (-1.5) vs DXA Esports (+1.5) BUY DXA Esports 47¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 41¢ $1 1h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym BUY Titouan Droguet 65¢ $1 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $1 1h
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 82¢ $1 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 43¢ $1 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku BUY Viktoria Hruncakova 49¢ $1 1h
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 58¢ $1 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 53¢ $1 2h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 28¢ $1 2h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Los Angeles Sparks 22¢ $1 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 46¢ $1 2h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $1 2h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 20¢ $1 4h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 28¢ $1 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 4h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 38¢ $1 4h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ $1 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 13¢ $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.46 · official $32.46 (match) · 2674 history records