Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:37:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
11 0x1144…4b04 crypto 460 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d only
✗ bot/MM pace (115 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$291 (+1%) realized +$257 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate75%347W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day115.0pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$571now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$222
7 days−$147
14 days−$107
30 days−$882
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$780
sports 5% +$486
other 1% +$421
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (115 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 142 +14.2% +3.3% 46% 45% -16.0%
≤30d 460 +5.2% -4.8% 75% 21% -11.7%
≤90d 460 +5.2% -4.8% 75% 21% -11.7%
all 460 +5.2% -4.8% 75% 21% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover115.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 21% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.0% 18% -20.1%
15% -22.3% 12% -27.9%
20% -29.9% 8% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$40 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$571
Realized+$257
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses347 / 113
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions23
Markets (closed)460 / 460
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$83
Trades / day115.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 460 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Over 27¢ 30¢ $31 $34 +$3 (+9%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 80¢ 90¢ $29 $32 +$3 (+12%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $33 $32 −$2 (-5%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? No 80¢ 98¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+23%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? No 80¢ 90¢ $27 $31 +$4 (+13%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? No 80¢ 96¢ $26 $31 +$5 (+19%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? No 80¢ 83¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? No 80¢ 97¢ $25 $31 +$5 (+21%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? No 79¢ 80¢ $30 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? No 80¢ 92¢ $27 $30 +$4 (+14%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Under 42¢ 42¢ $31 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 70¢ 68¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Under 76¢ 76¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Uruguay? No 80¢ 80¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? No 80¢ 92¢ $26 $30 +$4 (+14%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? No 80¢ 90¢ $27 $30 +$3 (+13%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Under 47¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Cabo Verde 80¢ 78¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Cabo Verde 61¢ 56¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Uruguay leading at halftime? No 51¢ 48¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Uruguay 80¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 92 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $42 −$42 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $29 −$29 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $68 −$68 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $104 −$104 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $343 −$343 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $43 −$43 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 21 $44 −$44 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $31 +$42 +134%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $33 +$48 +145%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $31 +$15 +50%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 +$13 +128%
Uruguay to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $39 +$92 +237%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $31 +$14 +44%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $9 +$2 +25%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $18 +$4 +25%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9 +$2 +25%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $3 +$1 +25%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $14 +$153 +1115%
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 21 $11 +$24 +216%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 +$9 +86%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 +$11 +105%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 +$17 +158%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 +$3 +27%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$5 +50%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $11 +$39 +365%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 +$3 +24%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $11 +$9 +90%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 +$5 +48%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $5 +$1 +25%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5) Jun 21 $10 +$2 +25%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 +$3 +30%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 +$5 +44%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $11 +$12 +115%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY No 80¢ $25 11m
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY No 80¢ $25 11m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $73 38m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $81 46m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 80¢ $29 46m
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 80¢ $26 48m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $46 49m
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 80¢ $0 52m
Uruguay leading at halftime? SELL No 99¢ $5 54m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $24 59m
Uruguay to score first vs. Cabo Verde? SELL No 100¢ $130 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 80¢ $27 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $45 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 80¢ $23 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 80¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 80¢ $1 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 80¢ $27 1h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY No 80¢ $26 1h
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Uruguay? BUY No 80¢ $30 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $31 1h
Uruguay to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY No 29¢ $39 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $32 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $31 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $31 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY No 80¢ $30 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $31 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $33 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 10¢ $34 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $570.67 · official $570.56 (match) · 3500 history records