Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:31:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
11 0x1147…da78 sports 298 markets active 1h ago coverage 209d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$14,826 (+16%) realized +$14,856 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%130W / 141L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$317per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$213est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$3,803now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$439
7 days−$19,714
14 days−$7,247
30 days−$7,247
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$1,785
other 8% +$585
politics 2% +$12,468
crypto 0% +$141
world 0% −$159
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 196 -30.3% -37.0% 34% 33% -49.0%
≤30d 198 -23.0% -30.3% 34% 33% -23.5%
≤90d 198 -23.0% -30.3% 34% 33% -23.5%
all 271 +1.0% -8.6% 48% 42% +5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 42% +5.3%
10% -17.3% 38% -4.8%
15% -25.3% 34% -14.0%
20% -32.6% 29% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +44% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$326 vs −$199 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

209d coverage
Net worth$3,803
Realized+$14,856
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses130 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$213
Open positions27
Markets (closed)271 / 298
History coverage209d
Avg bet$317
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 271 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? No 86¢ 86¢ $258 $260 +$2 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $261 $260 −$2 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? No 84¢ 84¢ $252 $250 −$2 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Over 80¢ 82¢ $240 $248 +$8 (+3%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Ecuador 68¢ 68¢ $204 $202 −$2 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $192 $190 −$2 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Under 63¢ 62¢ $189 $184 −$4 (-2%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $189 $184 −$4 (-2%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Over 63¢ 60¢ $189 $181 −$7 (-4%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 61¢ 60¢ $183 $178 −$4 (-2%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 60¢ $174 $178 +$4 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $171 $172 +$2 (+1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score No 55¢ 55¢ $165 $164 −$2 (-1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 46¢ $135 $136 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Ecuador 46¢ 44¢ $138 $130 −$8 (-5%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Under 40¢ 38¢ $120 $116 −$4 (-4%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 35¢ 36¢ $105 $110 +$4 (+4%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Over 34¢ 36¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 36¢ 34¢ $108 $100 −$8 (-7%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 32¢ 34¢ $96 $100 +$4 (+5%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Over 41¢ 38¢ $100 $92 −$9 (-9%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 17¢ 90¢ $17 $90 +$72 (+426%)
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Ecuador 26¢ 24¢ $78 $70 −$8 (-10%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Over 23¢ 20¢ $69 $61 −$8 (-11%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Egypt 33¢ 34¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $159 +$141 +89%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $225 +$75 +33%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $231 +$69 +30%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $96 −$96 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $117 −$117 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $93 −$93 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $156 −$156 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $265 +$35 +13%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $150 +$150 +100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $26 +$3 +14%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $216 +$84 +39%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $129 −$129 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $162 +$138 +85%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $234 +$66 +28%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $174 +$126 +72%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $210 +$90 +43%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $96 +$204 +212%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $122 −$122 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $144 −$144 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $195 −$195 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $153 +$147 +96%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $132 −$132 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $201 −$201 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $144 −$144 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $162 −$162 -100%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $186 +$114 +61%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $108 +$192 +178%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $255 +$45 +18%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $240 +$60 +25%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $129 −$129 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $201 −$201 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $123 −$123 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $210 +$90 +43%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $210 −$210 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $336 −$336 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $174 −$174 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $144 +$156 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $174 52m
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 33¢ $2 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 33¢ $17 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 33¢ $5 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $253 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $84 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $87 5h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $108 11h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 86¢ $258 11h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 11h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 32¢ $63 11h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $26 11h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 32¢ $1 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $100 11h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 32¢ $32 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $132 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $4 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $104 12h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $261 12h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 68¢ $204 13h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Ecuador 26¢ $78 13h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 35¢ $105 13h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $225 13h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $133 14h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $7 15h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $49 15h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 50¢ $133 16h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 50¢ $14 16h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 50¢ $2 16h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $165 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,802.68 · official $3,802.68 (match) · 1734 history records