Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:44:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1148…5492 crypto 410 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$165 (-2%) realized −$165 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%187W / 223L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$103
7 days−$187
14 days−$238
30 days−$280
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$493
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -5.6% -14.6% 44% 38% -29.0%
≤30d 154 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 47% -14.1%
≤90d 333 -10.5% -19.0% 47% 42% -14.3%
all 410 -13.3% -21.6% 46% 41% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 41% -14.4%
10% -29.1% 37% -22.6%
15% -35.9% 30% -30.1%
20% -42.2% 23% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$15 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$165
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses187 / 223
Open positions0
Markets (closed)410 / 410
History coverage92d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 410 Trades
no open positions (136 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $17 +$17 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$17 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $107 −$57 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$11 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$20 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $63 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$14 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$18 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$9 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$19 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$20 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $55 −$48 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$18 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $44 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$15 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$22 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$6 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$23 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$9 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$29 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $23 −$19 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$18 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $26 +$29 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 08 $72 +$35 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 08 $24 +$19 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 08 $27 +$26 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 07 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 07 $44 −$31 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 07 $34 +$10 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 07 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 07 $193 −$193 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 07 $97 +$98 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 07 $91 −$88 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 07 $99 +$89 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 07 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 07 $54 +$27 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 07 $85 +$17 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $19 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $4 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $4 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $12 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $19 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $11 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $19 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1138 history records