Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:16:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

11 0x114d…23e2 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$1,315 (+10%) realized +$1,316 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip

Net edge-44%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate50%3W / 3L

Drawdown24%max

Avg bet$1,867per market

Trades / day14.0pace

Fees−$44est.

Kalshi-fit57%portable

Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-32.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-25.7%	-32.8%	50%	33%	-2.7%
≤30d	6	-25.7%	-32.8%	50%	33%	-2.7%
≤90d	6	-25.7%	-32.8%	50%	33%	-2.7%
all	6	-25.7%	-32.8%	50%	33%	-2.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover14.0 tr/day

realistic slip~14%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-32.8%	33%	-2.7%
10% ← realistic here	-39.2%	17%	-12.0%
15%	-45.1%	0%	-20.5%
20%	-50.5%	0%	-28.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 78% · top 2 94% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -26% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$519 vs −$190 · ×2.73 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.73 per $1 lost it wins $2.73

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$49

Realized+$1,316

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses3 / 3

Est. fees paid−$44

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$1,867

Trades / day14.0

Drawdown24%

Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?	Yes	7¢	7¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria?	Jun 28	$103	−$91	-88%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$1,515	−$182	-12%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 28	$1,012	+$97	+10%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5	Jun 28	$1,018	+$238	+23%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Jun 27	$296	−$296	-100%
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$9,072	+$1,221	+14%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?	BUY Yes	7¢	$52	1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria?	SELL Yes	2¢	$12	1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria?	BUY Yes	12¢	$103	1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	SELL No	75¢	$1,333	4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	84¢	$505	4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	83¢	$1,010	4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	SELL Colombia	84¢	$1,109	4h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	72¢	$1,256	4h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	57¢	$1,018	5h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Colombia	75¢	$1,012	5h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY Yes	4¢	$38	6h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY Yes	10¢	$258	6h
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	99¢	$10,294	6h
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	86¢	$9,072	8h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.55 · official $49.29 (match) · 15 history records