Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:59:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
11 0x114f…f117 sports 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 752d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$374 (-14%) realized −$299 · open −$75
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%13W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$202
7 days+$139
14 days+$370
30 days+$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$129
other 27% −$12
crypto 13% −$350
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -13.5% -21.7% 41% 41% +5.8%
≤30d 25 +2.8% -7.0% 48% 48% +3.1%
≤90d 25 +2.8% -7.0% 48% 48% +3.1%
all 28 -3.2% -12.4% 46% 46% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 46% -16.0%
10% -20.8% 46% -24.0%
15% -28.5% 46% -31.4%
20% -35.5% 39% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$72 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

752d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$299
Unrealized−$75
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses13 / 15
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 34
History coverage752d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 38¢ 98¢ $16 $41 +$25 (+157%)
Algeria leading at halftime? Yes 46¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Egypt to win the second half? Jun 22 $101 +$87 +86%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $51 +$44 +86%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $78 +$102 +130%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 20 $43 −$43 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 AND Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $45 +$77 +171%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $61 +$79 +129%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $47 +$52 +109%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $37 −$36 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $86 +$52 +60%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 +$87 +340%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$27 +54%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$84 +83%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $82 +$68 +82%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $58 +$24 +42%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $181 −$178 -98%
UFC 302: Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier Jun 07 $136 −$136 -100%
Ethereum above $3,800 on June 7? Jun 02 $350 −$350 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2023-24 Champions League? Jun 02 $350 +$136 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $16 1h
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 4h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U BUY 30¢ $60 13h
Egypt to win the second half? SELL Yes 100¢ $188 25h
Egypt to win the second half? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 48¢ $102 42h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $51 42h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 67¢ $43 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 43¢ $78 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 AND Brazil leading at halftime? BUY 36¢ $45 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 AND Will Switzerland BUY 43¢ $102 4d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $21 5d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $21 5d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 5d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 47¢ $47 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $61 5d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 5d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 5d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 11¢ $37 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $101 6d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $51 7d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $112 7d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $78 7d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 7d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $51 7d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 62¢ $86 8d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 71¢ $38 9d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $101 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.16 · official $40.32 (match) · 49 history records