Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:41:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1150…1054 crypto 206 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,289 (-11%) realized −$2,289 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%44W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6,558
sports 0% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-40.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -38.6% -44.5% 20% 20% -38.2%
≤30d 206 -34.3% -40.6% 21% 21% -44.8%
≤90d 206 -34.3% -40.6% 21% 21% -44.8%
all 206 -34.3% -40.6% 21% 21% -44.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.6% 21% -44.8%
10% -46.3% 21% -50.1%
15% -51.5% 20% -54.9%
20% -56.2% 19% -59.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$142 vs −$79 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,289
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses44 / 162
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)206 / 206
History coverage26d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 206 Trades
no open positions (163 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $156 −$150 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 21 $188 +$74 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $105 −$100 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $105 −$100 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $105 +$109 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 21 $107 −$100 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $111 −$97 -87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $105 −$100 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $105 −$56 -53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $262 −$250 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 20 $158 −$150 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $201 +$295 +147%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $126 −$120 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $127 −$48 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $313 −$300 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $105 −$100 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $126 −$120 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $156 −$100 -64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $42 +$195 +462%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $127 −$120 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $110 −$104 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $179 −$70 -39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $147 +$236 +160%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $62 −$33 -53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $222 +$861 +388%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $63 −$60 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $38 +$32 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $62 −$20 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$10 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $75 −$71 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $160 −$40 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $367 −$256 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $125 −$120 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $129 −$123 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$28 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $88 −$84 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $175 +$12 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $116 −$110 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $73 +$7 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $156 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $52 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $42 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $69 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $42 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $211 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $105 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $214 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $105 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $107 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $8 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $53 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $42 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $52 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $53 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $209 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $137 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $141 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 467 history records