Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:48:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
11 0x1151…7d50 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$87 (-16%) realized −$108 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$12
14 days−$123
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +60.5% +45.2% 100% 100% +45.2%
≤30d 5 +10.8% +0.2% 80% 60% -40.4%
≤90d 5 +10.8% +0.2% 80% 60% -40.4%
all 5 +10.8% +0.2% 80% 60% -40.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.2% 60% -40.4%
10% -9.4% 60% -46.1%
15% -18.1% 60% -51.3%
20% -26.1% 20% -56.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$150 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$221
Realized−$108
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage16d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $100 $134 +$34 (+34%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $49 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 +$12 +60%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 +$10 +46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 +$5 +5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $30 +$13 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 11d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $152 12d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $101 12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $52 15d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $104 15d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.67 · official $220.67 (match) · 29 history records