Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:21:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
11 0x1157…8e4d sports 77 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate66%51W / 26L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$231
7 days+$680
14 days+$699
30 days+$699
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$559
crypto 28% +$110
other 2% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +15.4% +4.4% 70% 63% +7.5%
≤30d 77 +11.7% +1.1% 66% 61% +4.2%
≤90d 77 +11.7% +1.1% 66% 61% +4.2%
all 77 +11.7% +1.1% 66% 61% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.1% 61% +4.2%
10% -8.6% 38% -5.8%
15% -17.4% 27% -14.9%
20% -25.5% 13% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$32 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.58 per $1 lost it wins $2.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses51 / 26
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 77
History coverage10d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 23 $61 −$30 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $88 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 23 $88 +$12 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 23 $87 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $94 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 22 $70 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $69 +$11 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $70 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $69 +$11 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $70 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $67 −$42 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $63 +$17 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 22 $67 +$13 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $70 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $71 +$9 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $71 +$9 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $68 +$12 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $44 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $44 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $14 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $44 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $93 +$7 +8%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $91 +$35 +39%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $55 +$15 +27%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 21 $71 +$24 +34%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $91 +$36 +40%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $91 $0 +0%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $89 +$24 +27%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $71 $0 +0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $101 $0 +0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $71 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 20 $71 +$31 +44%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $81 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 20 $155 −$34 -22%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo Jun 20 $67 +$29 +44%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $67 $0 +0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $67 +$30 +46%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $133 +$58 +43%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $101 +$13 +13%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 19 $55 +$14 +25%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 19 $151 +$76 +50%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Facundo Acosta Jun 19 $81 +$39 +48%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $71 −$14 -20%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $51 +$34 +67%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $151 +$12 +8%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 18 $71 +$23 +32%
ITF Milano: Giorgio Tabacco vs Gianmarco Ferrari Jun 18 $101 +$33 +32%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif Jun 18 $60 +$19 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 33¢ $31 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $75 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $6 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $87 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $87 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $94 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $70 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $69 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $44 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.50 (match) · 168 history records