Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:15:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1159…c711 sports 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$205 (+2%) realized +$205 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate27%11W / 30L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$278per market
Trades / day60.8pace
Fees−$193est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$258
other 43% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -16.4% -24.4% 27% 20% -10.3%
≤30d 41 -16.4% -24.4% 27% 20% -10.3%
≤90d 41 -16.4% -24.4% 27% 20% -10.3%
all 41 -16.4% -24.4% 27% 20% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.4% 20% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -31.6% 17% -18.9%
15% -38.2% 15% -26.7%
20% -44.3% 15% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -24% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$54 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$205
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses11 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$193
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage4d
Avg bet$278
Trades / day60.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $86 +$2 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$10 -194%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$20 -194%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $519 +$533 +103%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$20 -196%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $16 −$2 -13%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $9 +$5 +60%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $82 +$8 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,513 +$666 +26%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2,000 −$372 -19%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$9 -196%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $20 −$40 -197%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $543 −$7 -1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$20 -196%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $285 −$77 -27%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 +$23 +234%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$28 +272%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,403 −$117 -8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $786 −$75 -10%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $692 −$202 -29%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $431 −$36 -8%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $3 −$6 -194%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 −$20 -195%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$17 +162%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $11 +$12 +105%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $196 +$21 +11%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $430 −$13 -3%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 −$49 -197%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 −$50 -197%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $755 −$103 -14%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $400 −$344 -86%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $4 $0 -8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 −$20 -195%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $13 −$1 -11%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $9 $0 -1%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$1 -7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 $0 -2%
IFK Mariehamn vs. IF Gnistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $19 −$5 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 96¢ $88 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 94¢ $86 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 1¢ $5 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $0 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $0 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $1 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $0 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $1 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $0 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $1 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $4 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $0 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $4 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $24 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $4 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $1 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $0 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $4 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $24 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $4 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $24 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $0 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $1 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $4 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $4 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $24 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $4 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $0 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $1 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $4 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 327 history records