Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:22:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
11 0x115d…f56e crypto 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
Total PnL −$23 (-15%) realized −$25 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%29W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$0
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$13
other 6% −$2
sports 5% +$4
politics 4% −$6
world 3% −$5
tech 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-34.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +54.6% +39.9% 75% 75% +56.6%
≤30d 65 -28.3% -35.2% 37% 34% -24.9%
≤90d 65 -28.3% -35.2% 37% 34% -24.9%
all 75 -27.6% -34.5% 39% 33% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.5% 33% -24.9%
10% -40.7% 33% -32.1%
15% -46.5% 29% -38.7%
20% -51.7% 24% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses29 / 46
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 77
History coverage140d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 44¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will Ken Yasger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-60%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Meituan have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 10? No 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +60%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$1 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$5 +226%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 24 $1 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 24 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 24 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 24 $2 +$5 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 24 $1 +$1 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 23 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 23 $1 +$1 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 22 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 22 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 20 $1 +$2 +198%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Robert Wells Jr. be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 19 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 19 $1 +$2 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 19 $1 +$2 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $3 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 22h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 75¢ $3 22h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $2 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $2 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.62 · official $2.62 (match) · 112 history records