Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:10:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1160…b32a politics 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%9W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$2
sports 27% −$2
other 13% −$1
culture 8% −$1
world 6% $0
economics 4% −$4
crypto 4% +$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 58 -10.9% -19.4% 16% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -27.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -34.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -40.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses9 / 49
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage236d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $78 $78 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $81 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $78 $0 -0%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Mar 02 $80 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 26 $78 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 17 $79 $0 -0%
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 12 $78 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? Feb 06 $78 $0 +0%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? Jan 31 $77 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $78 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Jan 25 $77 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 23 $77 $0 -0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 m Jan 22 $1 −$1 -76%
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? Jan 21 $1 $0 -50%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 21 $81 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 20 $79 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 16 $81 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 14 $1 $0 -17%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 14 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 13 $81 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 10 $80 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $81 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 07 $78 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 06 $1 $0 -17%
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 05 $1 $0 -50%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 05 $163 $0 -0%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 03 $83 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 29 $80 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 27 $247 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 25 $81 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 23 $80 $0 -0%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m Dec 22 $1 −$1 -83%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 21 $1 $0 -33%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 21 $82 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 19 $81 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 17 $82 $0 -0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 16 $83 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 12 $81 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 10 $84 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 08 $85 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 06 $169 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 04 $85 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 02 $85 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 30 $1 $0 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $86 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $85 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 20 $89 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 18 $87 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Nov 16 $85 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $78 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $80 47h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $81 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $77 11d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $78 18d
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY No 100¢ $80 114d
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $78 116d
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $78 120d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $79 125d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $79 128d
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? BUY Yes 100¢ $78 133d
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $78 138d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 142d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $77 143d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $78 147d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $77 148d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $77 149d
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $77 150d
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $77 151d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 m SELL Yes 0¢ $0 151d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 m BUY Yes 0¢ $1 152d
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 152d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $81 152d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $81 153d
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 153d
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 153d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $79 153d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $79 157d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $81 158d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $81 158d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.41 · official $78.41 (match) · 179 history records