Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:13:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1161…ebbd crypto 440 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (163 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,476 (-89%) realized −$5,477 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +147% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +90% what you keep after slip
Net edge+90%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%255W / 271L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day163.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$853
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (163 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+123.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 441 +182.3% +155.4% 51% 49% -11.1%
≤30d 526 +147.2% +123.7% 48% 45% -20.2%
≤90d 526 +147.2% +123.7% 48% 45% -20.2%
all 526 +147.2% +123.7% 48% 45% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover163.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +123.7% 45% -20.2%
10% ← realistic here +102.3% 40% -27.8%
15% +82.7% 34% -34.8%
20% +64.8% 30% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +147% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +309% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$5,477
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses255 / 271
Open positions2
Markets (closed)526 / 440
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day163.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 526 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Down 82¢ 100¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+22%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Up 88¢ 56¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$29 +8879%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$18 -3168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$29 -3428%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$33 -4490%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$15 +4116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$3 +680%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$8 +2796%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$86 -20466%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$26 -5555%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$2 +637%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$3 +1471%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$21 -4833%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$7 +3445%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$6 +3095%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$5 +2219%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$6 -2108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$30 -8748%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$4 +2650%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$7 +3562%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$21 -5159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$3 +1910%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$9 +5867%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$9 -5554%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$6 +4019%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$58 +58176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$5 +2969%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -389%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -908%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$8 +8330%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$18 +16619%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -1710%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$32 -20338%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$6 +7567%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -542%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$15 +22250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -2858%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$6 +10329%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$38 -28921%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$13 -12910%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$37 +94016%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -1443%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$2 +3591%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$7 +13587%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$36 -50126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -1140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$26 -35082%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $7 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.80 · official $10.39 · 3500 history records