Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:09:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x116b…f106 politics 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 294d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%15W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% $0
world 27% −$1
other 19% $0
sports 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
tech 4% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 -2.9% -12.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 7 -2.9% -12.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 58 -0.5% -10.0% 26% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

294d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses15 / 43
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage294d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $6 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $41 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $4 $0 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $77 −$1 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $33 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $2 $0 -13%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 18 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 21 $6 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 21 $6 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? Oct 20 $6 $0 +1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Oct 13 $7 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 10 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Oct 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $8 $0 -0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Oct 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Oct 02 $5 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Oct 02 $7 $0 +2%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 30 $4 $0 +2%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $5 $0 -2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 21 $1 $0 -3%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 18 $47 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 18 $3 $0 -11%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? Sep 17 $11 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 12 $34 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $26 2h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 12h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $40 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $40 17d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $33 17d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $33 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $22 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $15 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $32 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 17d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $41 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $41 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.60 · official $0.60 (match) · 175 history records