Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:59:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x116c…c49e other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 307d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate34%12W / 23L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$1
other 34% +$1
politics 17% $0
tech 4% $0
finance 2% +$4
culture 1% +$2
sports 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -3.7% -12.9% 29% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 8% -9.0%
≤90d 12 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 8% -9.0%
all 35 +1.8% -7.9% 34% 9% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 9% -8.8%
10% -16.7% 3% -17.6%
15% -24.8% 3% -25.5%
20% -32.1% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.63 per $1 lost it wins $2.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

307d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses12 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage307d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $2 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $47 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $2 $0 -22%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $7 $0 -4%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $47 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $103 −$2 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $53 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $20 +$4 +20%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $34 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 23 $34 $0 +1%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 17 $4 +$2 +43%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $8 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $37 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 24 $43 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 21 $43 $0 +0%
Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? Aug 20 $8 +$1 +14%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 20 $34 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $52 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 88¢ $34 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 88¢ $12 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 88¢ $28 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 88¢ $18 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $13 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $34 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $47 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $17 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $12 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $28 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $52 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $53 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $52 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $53 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.02 · official $52.02 (match) · 120 history records