Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:53:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
11 0x1172…9b72 sports 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 864d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,032 (-6%) realized −$1,037 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate68%91W / 42L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$23
14 days−$673
30 days−$600
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$996
other 37% −$38
world 7% −$25
finance 3% +$8
politics 0% +$5
crypto 0% +$2
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -3.3% -12.5% 83% 33% -12.4%
≤30d 32 -0.8% -10.2% 78% 22% -15.1%
≤90d 68 -3.7% -12.9% 78% 24% -14.3%
all 133 +3.1% -6.7% 68% 40% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 40% -15.0%
10% -15.6% 26% -23.2%
15% -23.8% 20% -30.6%
20% -31.3% 14% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$63 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

864d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$1,037
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses91 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 135
History coverage864d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Over 94¢ 100¢ $75 $80 +$5 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 22 $150 +$6 +4%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $153 +$18 +12%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $41 +$8 +21%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $21 +$1 +5%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $100 −$65 -65%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $250 +$10 +4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $76 +$6 +7%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $87 +$3 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $152 +$167 +109%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 AND Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0 Jun 13 $10 +$2 +23%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $500 −$200 -40%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $646 −$645 -100%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $621 +$17 +3%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $212 +$3 +1%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $604 +$18 +3%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $586 +$17 +3%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $119 −$113 -95%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $176 +$25 +14%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 0.5 Jun 03 $611 −$14 -2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $53 +$5 +9%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $573 +$17 +3%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $63 +$8 +12%
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 May 31 $540 +$41 +8%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $517 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $1,085 −$62 -6%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 26 $655 +$3 +0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $560 +$89 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 25 $5 $0 +2%
Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 0.5 May 24 $89 +$4 +4%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 0.5 May 24 $201 +$13 +6%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 0.5 May 24 $88 +$7 +8%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 0.5 May 24 $200 +$12 +6%
Girona FC vs. Elche CF: O/U 5.5 May 23 $430 +$22 +5%
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. IR Tanger: O/U 0.5 May 23 $93 +$7 +8%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 0.5 May 21 $93 +$7 +7%
Will US Catanzaro 1929 win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $97 +$16 +17%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 May 19 $85 +$11 +12%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 0.5 May 19 $350 +$13 +4%
CD Leganés vs. SD Huesca: O/U 4.5 May 18 $100 +$6 +6%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 0.5 May 18 $293 +$1 +0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $100 −$12 -12%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 0.5 May 17 $96 +$2 +2%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 0.5 May 17 $100 +$4 +4%
Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 0.5 May 17 $69 +$2 +2%
Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 0.5 May 17 $300 +$15 +5%
Como 1907 vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 0.5 May 17 $100 +$12 +12%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $300 +$2 +1%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $338 +$1 +0%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 0.5 May 16 $9 +$1 +11%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 0.5 May 16 $300 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $75 2h
Iraq leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $156 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 100¢ $170 7h
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY No 96¢ $150 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $153 12h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? SELL Up 35¢ $16 14h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? SELL Up 35¢ $33 14h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up 29¢ $41 14h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? SELL Up 34¢ $7 25h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? SELL Up 34¢ $13 25h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? SELL Up 34¢ $2 25h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up 30¢ $6 26h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up 33¢ $8 26h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up 33¢ $6 26h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 SELL Over 32¢ $35 29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $250 37h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $100 37h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $76 8d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 AND Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 AND Wil BUY 63¢ $15 9d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $87 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $152 10d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 30¢ $300 10d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 50¢ $50 10d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 50¢ $2 10d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 50¢ $184 10d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 50¢ $2 10d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 50¢ $2 10d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 50¢ $50 10d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 50¢ $50 10d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 50¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.75 · official $79.75 (match) · 437 history records