Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:09:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

11
0x1172…44d2
weather · 95 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$6 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$22 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$65
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses13 / 80
Open positions2
Markets (closed)93 / 95
History coverage55d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 2 History 93 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on April 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 2? No 99¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 2? No 98¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-30%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C on April 24? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on April 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 23? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 2? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 22? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 24? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on April 26? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on April 22? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on April 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on April 25? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 21? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on April 25? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 2? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or higher on April 27? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 24? No 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on April 27? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on April 23? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on April 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on April 26? No 99¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 9? Jun 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 8? Jun 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 7? Jun 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 6? Jun 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 4? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 3? Jun 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 2? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 2? Jun 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 1? Jun 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C or below on June 1? Jun 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 31? Jun 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 30? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 30? May 31 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma May 31 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on May 29? May 30 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C or below on May 29? May 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on May 2 May 29 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 27? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 27? May 27 $15 $0 -0%
Will Julie Johnson be the Democratic nominee for TX-33? May 27 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 17? May 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on May 17? May 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on May 16? May 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on May 16? May 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on May 15? May 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will Romania come in 3rd place at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 14? May 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 13? May 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elec May 08 $13 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 61°F or below on May 6? May 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on May 6? May 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ma May 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ma May 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will Josh Williams be the Republican nominee for OH-09? May 06 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on May 5? May 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on May 5? May 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C or higher on May 5? May 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on May 5? May 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 4? May 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on May 4? May 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on May 4? May 04 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 93% −$15
politics 3% +$3
other 2% −$11
tech 1% +$1
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 43m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $13 44m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 1¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $13 23h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 47h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $14 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 11? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 11? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 11? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 9? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 9? BUY No 98¢ $11 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 8? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 8? BUY No 98¢ $14 6d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 8? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 8? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 7? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 7? BUY No 99¢ $13 7d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 6? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 6? BUY No 98¢ $12 8d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 6? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $12 8d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on June 5? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on June 5? BUY No 99¢ $13 9d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 4? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 4? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 +0.5% -9.0% 9% 3% -9.2%
≤90d 93 -28.5% -35.3% 14% 2% -11.9%
all 93 -28.5% -35.3% 14% 2% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.3% 2% -11.9%
10% -41.5% 0% -20.3%
15% -47.2% 0% -28.0%
20% -52.4% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.85 · official $64.85 (match) · 290 history records