Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1173…037e sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (151 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,778 (-8%) realized −$1,113 · open −$665
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%12W / 12L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$817per market
Trades / day151.2pace
Fees−$265est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$432
other 37% +$630
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (151 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +1.5% -8.1% 50% 50% -1.8%
≤30d 24 +1.5% -8.1% 50% 50% -1.8%
≤90d 24 +1.5% -8.1% 50% 50% -1.8%
all 24 +1.5% -8.1% 50% 50% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover151.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 50% -1.8%
10% -16.9% 50% -11.2%
15% ← realistic here -24.9% 42% -19.8%
20% -32.3% 38% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$1,100) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$880 vs −$736 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1,113
Unrealized−$665
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$265
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$817
Trades / day151.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Stade Francais win? Yes 37¢ $666 $1 −$665 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,648 +$2,648 +161%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,529 +$469 +31%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $183 −$180 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $587 +$249 +42%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $1,531 +$448 +29%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $248 +$495 +200%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Jun 20 $982 +$1,619 +165%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $750 −$750 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $30 −$29 -98%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $269 −$265 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $267 −$262 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1,052 +$707 +67%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $459 −$450 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $655 +$347 +53%
Will Northampton Saints/Leicester Tigers win? Jun 20 $1,006 +$1,004 +100%
Will Bath/Exeter Chiefs win? Jun 20 $121 −$121 -100%
Will Chiefs win? Jun 20 $1,627 −$1,627 -100%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $443 +$821 +185%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $675 +$783 +116%
Will Racing 92 win? Jun 19 $814 −$814 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $750 −$750 -100%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $2,892 −$2,849 -98%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 19 $1,100 +$963 +88%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $738 −$730 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,296 37m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 35¢ $215 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 42¢ $769 1h
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,998 1h
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 1h
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 76¢ $274 1h
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,250 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $306 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 37¢ $185 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 36¢ $183 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $387 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 84¢ $836 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,979 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $742 2h
Will Stade Francais win? BUY Yes 37¢ $248 2h
Will Stade Francais win? BUY Yes 37¢ $11 2h
Will Stade Francais win? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 2h
Will Stade Francais win? BUY Yes 40¢ $33 2h
Will Stade Francais win? BUY Yes 40¢ $146 2h
Will Stade Francais win? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 2h
Will Stade Francais win? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 2h
Will Stade Francais win? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 2h
Will Stade Francais win? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $1,531 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 33¢ $248 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $587 2h
Will Stade Francais win? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 2h
Will Stade Francais win? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $157 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $16 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.90 · official $211.90 · 205 history records