Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:30:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1175…9b8f politics 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 272d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$1
other 23% $0
politics 20% −$2
crypto 7% $0
economics 5% $0
sports 4% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 8 -0.4% -9.9% 12% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 12 -0.5% -10.0% 17% 0% -9.8%
all 39 -0.1% -9.7% 26% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage272d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $38 $0 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $42 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $85 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $59 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $85 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $30 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $21 $0 -2%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $4 $0 -5%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Oct 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Oct 09 $8 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 09 $8 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $47 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Oct 08 $27 $0 -1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 07 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 Oct 07 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 06 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $26 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 05 $5 $0 +8%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 05 $22 $0 -0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 04 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $27 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 01 $53 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Oct 01 $26 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 30 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 29 $51 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 28 $23 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $38 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $42 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $41 4h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $33 20h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $5 20h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $20 20h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $18 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $42 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $34 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $3 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $38 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $38 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $39 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $3 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $26 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $10 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $39 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $42 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $42 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $38 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $17 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $20 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.16 · official $38.16 (match) · 140 history records