Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:15:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
11 0x117f…3751 crypto 99 markets active 2h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$82 (-1%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate58%57W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$79
other 21% −$2
economics 6% −$1
politics 4% $0
finance 2% $0
world 2% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 32 -2.7% -12.0% 53% 3% -9.3%
all 98 -2.7% -11.9% 58% 2% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 2% -10.3%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.9%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.7%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses57 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)98 / 99
History coverage228d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $106 $105 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $106 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? Jun 22 $106 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 27 $106 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 20? May 27 $106 $0 +0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $106 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? May 20 $106 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 13 $105 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 29? May 13 $106 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 29 $106 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 April 20-26? Apr 29 $106 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $106 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 23? Apr 25 $106 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $106 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 21? Apr 23 $106 $0 +0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $106 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 17? Apr 21 $106 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? Apr 17 $212 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 14? Apr 17 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 7? Apr 14 $106 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $105 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on April 2? Apr 07 $106 $0 +0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $106 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 30? Apr 02 $105 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 30 $105 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 27? Mar 30 $105 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 27 $106 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on March 25? Mar 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 25 $89 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 25 $95 +$2 +2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 25 $97 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 23? Mar 25 $97 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 23 $97 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 19? Mar 23 $97 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 19 $97 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $97 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 720-759 tweets in March 2026? Mar 17 $97 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 9-15? Mar 17 $97 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 15 $97 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 12? Mar 15 $97 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 12 $97 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 10? Mar 12 $97 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 10 $194 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 10 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on March 2? Mar 07 $97 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 02 $97 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 1? Mar 02 $97 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 01 $96 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 9? Mar 01 $97 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 Feb 09 $97 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $106 1h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $106 1h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $106 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $106 26d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $106 26d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $106 26d
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $106 33d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $106 33d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $106 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $106 40d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $105 40d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $105 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 29? BUY No 100¢ $106 54d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $106 54d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $106 54d
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 April 20-26? BUY No 100¢ $106 58d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $106 58d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $106 58d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $106 60d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $106 60d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $106 60d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $106 62d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $106 62d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $106 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $106 66d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? SELL No 100¢ $106 66d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $106 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 14? BUY No 100¢ $105 69d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? SELL No 100¢ $106 69d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $106 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.08 · official $105.08 (match) · 223 history records