Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:59:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1180…4795 crypto 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$54 (+10%) realized +$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day38.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +17.6% +6.4% 36% 29% -22.6%
≤30d 14 +17.6% +6.4% 36% 29% -22.6%
≤90d 14 +17.6% +6.4% 36% 29% -22.6%
all 14 +17.6% +6.4% 36% 29% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.4% 29% -22.6%
10% ← realistic here -3.8% 21% -30.0%
15% -13.1% 21% -36.8%
20% -21.6% 21% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +56% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$44 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $66 −$65 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$60 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $58 −$53 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $58 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$98 +310%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$152 +574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records