Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:01:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
11 0x1181…f7e8 sports 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$917 (+65%) realized +$1,107 · open −$190
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$293now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$629
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-42.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -36.5% -42.6% 33% 33% +84.4%
≤30d 6 -36.5% -42.6% 33% 33% +84.4%
≤90d 6 -36.5% -42.6% 33% 33% +84.4%
all 6 -36.5% -42.6% 33% 33% +84.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.6% 33% +84.4%
10% -48.1% 33% +66.7%
15% -53.1% 17% +50.6%
20% -57.7% 17% +35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +104% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt +104% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$453 vs −$22 · ×20.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.34 per $1 lost it wins $10.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$293
Realized+$1,107
Unrealized−$190
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage6d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 7¢ 17¢ $67 $170 +$104 (+156%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 23¢ 7¢ $400 $123 −$277 (-69%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner EDward Gaming 13¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $78 −$76 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $104 +$36 +35%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $597 +$870 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 23¢ $409 8m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 22¢ $23 52m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 32¢ $22 57m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 13¢ $41 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 49¢ $102 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 31¢ $100 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 18¢ $102 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 16¢ $49 3d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 13¢ $5 3d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 29¢ $30 3d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Heretics 10¢ $5 5d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL XLG Gaming 99¢ $38 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 26¢ $10 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL XLG Gaming 29¢ $68 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL XLG Gaming 15¢ $35 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 19¢ $72 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 19¢ $22 5d
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $69 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL EDward Gaming 85¢ $974 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL EDward Gaming 55¢ $493 6d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 24¢ $407 6d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 46¢ $190 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $293.16 · official $293.26 (match) · 23 history records