Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:48:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1181…9e90 world 150 markets active 2h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$724 (+0%) realized −$296 · open +$1,020
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate63%84W / 50L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,454per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$247est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$35,210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1,812
30 days+$1,902
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$6,998
other 25% −$7,653
politics 13% −$2,310
sports 5% +$971
finance 2% −$52
crypto 0% +$40
tech 0% +$29
weather 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 +65.9% +50.1% 64% 45% +2.0%
≤90d 79 +3.1% -6.7% 66% 41% -11.8%
all 134 -7.4% -16.2% 63% 39% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 39% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 22% -19.2%
15% -31.5% 14% -27.0%
20% -38.2% 7% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$1,683) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$261 vs −$498 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$35,210
Realized−$296
Unrealized+$1,020
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses84 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$247
Open positions16
Markets (closed)134 / 150
History coverage153d
Avg bet$1,454
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 67¢ 84¢ $6,678 $8,425 +$1,748 (+26%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 62¢ 60¢ $6,200 $5,950 −$250 (-4%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 73¢ 86¢ $4,380 $5,130 +$750 (+17%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 50¢ 98¢ $1,500 $2,950 +$1,450 (+97%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 100¢ $2,213 $2,567 +$355 (+16%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 66¢ 99¢ $1,320 $1,983 +$663 (+50%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 50¢ 42¢ $2,000 $1,660 −$340 (-17%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 62¢ 80¢ $1,300 $1,660 +$360 (+28%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? No 86¢ 84¢ $1,325 $1,301 −$24 (-2%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 56¢ 59¢ $1,120 $1,180 +$60 (+5%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $949 $994 +$45 (+5%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $950 $725 −$225 (-24%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 39¢ 18¢ $780 $370 −$410 (-53%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $207 $228 +$21 (+10%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Yes 39¢ $1,181 $50 −$1,132 (-96%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 15¢ $600 $36 −$564 (-94%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 15¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 22 $239 +$211 +89%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $122 −$122 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $319 −$35 -11%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $2,029 +$771 +38%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $2,404 +$56 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1,092 +$308 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $57 +$393 +687%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $1,720 +$280 +16%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 16 $255 −$50 -20%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $2,104 −$299 -14%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $4,600 +$388 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $365 −$95 -26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $2,352 −$1,408 -60%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 23 $1,428 −$1,428 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 22 $2,050 −$424 -21%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 21 $1,180 −$1,180 -100%
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $860 +$40 +5%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $2,485 −$2,485 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $6,960 +$1,040 +15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $4,300 +$700 +16%
StarCraft II: herO vs SHIN (BO5) - RSL Revival Playoffs May 15 $24 +$9 +36%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 13 $1,683 −$1,683 -100%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 09 $437 −$430 -98%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $2,608 −$30 -1%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Western Conference? May 08 $1,280 −$1,280 -100%
Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,670 −$1,660 -99%
Uber # of trips above 5B in Q1? May 06 $27 +$2 +6%
Uber # of trips above 4.2B in Q1? May 06 $62 +$2 +3%
Uber # of trips above 4.8B in Q1? May 06 $80 $0 +0%
Uber # of trips above 3.8B in Q1? May 06 $77 +$12 +16%
Uber # of trips above 4.6B in Q1? May 06 $99 +$1 +1%
Uber # of trips above 4.4B in Q1? May 06 $98 +$2 +2%
Uber # of trips above 4B in Q1? May 06 $148 +$9 +6%
Uber # of trips above 3.6B in Q1? May 06 $257 +$65 +25%
Will Meta’s Q1 headcount be above 75000? May 06 $577 +$15 +3%
Uber # of trips above 3.4B in Q1? May 06 $702 +$66 +9%
Uber # of trips above 3.2B in Q1? May 06 $1,426 +$75 +5%
Will Meta’s Q1 headcount be above 76000? May 06 $2,067 +$157 +8%
Will Meta’s Q1 headcount be above 78000? May 06 $3,257 +$436 +13%
Will Meta’s Q1 headcount be above 79000? May 06 $5,917 +$135 +2%
Will Meta’s Q1 headcount be above 77000? Apr 28 $2,951 −$2,951 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 26 $12,060 +$198 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 21 $2,847 −$2,159 -76%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Apr 18 $5,937 −$140 -2%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 17 $1,072 +$146 +14%
Kurds declare independence from Iran? Apr 17 $607 +$100 +16%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Apr 16 $529 +$136 +26%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Apr 16 $352 +$28 +8%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 12 $2,298 +$518 +22%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 10 $1,369 +$784 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $983 1h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $342 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $60 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $300 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $150 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $19 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $32 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $36 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $38 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $14 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $24 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $32 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $21 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $32 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $500 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $12 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $12 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $35 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $250 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35,210.05 · official $35,206.95 (match) · 1653 history records