Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:38:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1183…01a6 other 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$60 (-34%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%11W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$56
sports 24% +$43
world 3% −$6
crypto 3% −$1
politics 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -10.2% -18.7% 32% 32% -18.6%
≤30d 23 -9.5% -18.1% 35% 30% -18.5%
≤90d 23 -9.5% -18.1% 35% 30% -18.5%
all 30 -16.4% -24.4% 37% 33% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 33% -21.4%
10% -31.6% 27% -28.9%
15% -38.2% 23% -35.8%
20% -44.3% 20% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses11 / 19
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage119d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $14 $0 -1%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $41 −$21 -52%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 +$3 +125%
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 22 $2 +$5 +246%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $19 +$39 +203%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 $0 -10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 +$1 +12%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$9 +180%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +227%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +46%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Kings vs. Rockets Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Feb 25 $1 $0 +12%
Will the State of the Union be 80 minutes or longer? Feb 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 25+ times during the 2026 State Feb 24 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 23, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Feb 24 $1 $0 +23%
XRP Up or Down - February 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Feb 23 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 40¢ $5 17m
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 21m
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 66¢ $59 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $14 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $13 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $4 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 44¢ $16 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $23 7h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 7h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 7h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 7h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 7h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $6 10h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $1 10h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 10h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records