Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:00:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1185…0699 other 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 313d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate41%30W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$6
other 20% −$4
politics 12% −$2
sports 6% $0
crypto 4% $0
culture 4% $0
weather 3% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.2% -7.6% 67% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 15 +1.3% -8.3% 53% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 15 +1.3% -8.3% 53% 0% -8.9%
all 74 -0.5% -10.0% 41% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 4% -9.4%
10% -18.6% 1% -18.1%
15% -26.5% 1% -26.0%
20% -33.7% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

313d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses30 / 44
Open positions3
Markets (closed)74 / 77
History coverage313d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 82¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $60 +$1 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $71 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $116 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $62 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $114 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $35 +$4 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $52 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $79 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $23 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $78 $0 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $52 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $45 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $3 $0 +6%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 30 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 30 $6 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Dec 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $5 +$3 +69%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $11 −$3 -26%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $13 −$6 -49%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $34 $0 -0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $11 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 19 $10 $0 +4%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? Oct 11 $9 $0 +4%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $8 $0 +2%
Will Jack Draper win the 2025 US Open? Aug 29 $9 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? Aug 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 20 $12 $0 -2%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 17 $2 $0 -1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 17 $43 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $34 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $12 9h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $11 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $26 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $29 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $56 28h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $37 38h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $37 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $18 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $31 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $49 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $42 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $55 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $61 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $38 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $24 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $6 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $56 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $62 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $12 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $9 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $36 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.32 · official $34.98 (match) · 434 history records