Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:10:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1186…4304 world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$2
politics 30% $0
crypto 14% −$1
other 10% $0
sports 6% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.1% -11.4% 43% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 10 -2.3% -11.6% 30% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 10 -2.3% -11.6% 30% 0% -10.3%
all 36 -1.5% -10.9% 31% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage302d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 87¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ 87¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $4 $0 -4%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $53 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $14 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $7 −$2 -26%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 -8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $46 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 05 $37 $0 -0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 21 $2 $0 -11%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $5 $0 +10%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 11 $33 $0 -1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 Oct 05 $8 $0 -0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $4 $0 +2%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $32 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 30 $1 $0 -4%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 30 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 30 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $5 $0 +7%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 25 $1 $0 +7%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? Aug 23 $4 −$2 -44%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Aug 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 20 $37 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? Aug 20 $41 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $42 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $44 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 26h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $6 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $34 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $17 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $7 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $17 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 78¢ $0 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $13 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $13 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $15 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $14 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 17¢ $5 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $7 6d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.91 · official $1.74 (match) · 171 history records