Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:32:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1189…ff24 crypto 1032 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (104 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$115 (+6%) realized +$116 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%525W / 505L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day103.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$98
7 days+$79
14 days+$83
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (104 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 708 -5.2% -14.2% 51% 51% -3.8%
≤30d 1030 -3.5% -12.7% 51% 50% -5.2%
≤90d 1030 -3.5% -12.7% 51% 50% -5.2%
all 1030 -3.5% -12.7% 51% 50% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover103.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 50% -5.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 48% -14.3%
15% -28.7% 45% -22.6%
20% -35.6% 41% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$116
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses525 / 505
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1030 / 1032
History coverage11d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day103.6
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1030 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 37¢ 38¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 466 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$2 +164%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 29 $6 +$4 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$15 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 29 $27 +$22 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 29 $13 −$12 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 29 $27 +$22 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $27 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.90 · official $6.77 · 1597 history records